Snap election speculation as Treasury mulls early Budget

George Osborne, the former chancellor, said Mr Hunt was “opening the door” to a May election but was “unlikely” to walk through it.

Mr Hunt timed his biggest personal tax measure, a 2p reduction in the main rate of National Insurance, to take effect on Jan 6 rather than April, the start of the financial year. Doing so means people will feel the financial benefit of the tax cut for months rather than weeks if a spring 2024 election is called.

Tory election strategists are hoping cutting taxes in the run-up will help convince voters to give them another term in office.

But on Thursday, think tank analysis revealed the scale of tax rises since the 2019 election. Taxes have been increased by £90 billion since 2019, dwarfing Wednesday’s cut.

It has emerged that Isaac Levido, the Tory campaign manager in 2019 who will hold the same role for the next election, is planning to join Conservative Campaign Headquarters full-time from January and would therefore be in place for any early election.

However, past Tory campaign managers have joined full-time much earlier than a year out from a vote, suggesting that joining in January for an autumn election would not be unusual.

Multiple Tory sources have pointed to the huge lead Labour has over the Conservatives in the average opinion polls – 20 percentage points – as proof a spring election was unlikely.

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