Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, told The Telegraph that Reform represented a “major problem for the Conservatives”.
“They are eating into what you would call a lot of the core Conservative vote,” he said.
Mr English said the shift seemed to begin last year when “the Conservatives started talking a lot more about immigration” and the topic rose “higher in public consciousness and discourse”.
A lot of previous Tory voters appeared to have concluded that the party was doing a “terrible job on immigration” and had moved to Reform instead, he said.
Even though the Brexit Party did not run candidates against Conservative MPs in 2019, the party was still estimated to have cost the Tories about 25 seats in that election.
Mr English said that while it was difficult to make predictions at this stage, if Reform maintained its current polling – roughly double what the Brexit Party achieved in 2019 – it could potentially stop the Tories winning in as many as 50 seats.
“The impact could be very big and way beyond what the Brexit Party impact was in 2019,” he said.
The Tories have recognised the threat posed by Reform, with Rishi Sunak writing in an article for The Telegraph earlier this month that “a vote for anyone other than the Conservatives will just help [Keir] Starmer”.
William Turner is a seasoned U.K. correspondent with a deep understanding of domestic affairs. With a passion for British politics and culture, he provides insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage of events within the United Kingdom.
