ONS accused of overestimating excess deaths in first year of pandemic

The ONS pointed out that the revised methodology had actually lowered the number of excess deaths in 2020 from 84,064 to 76,412 – a drop of 9 per cent.

The new changes this week also saw excess deaths in 2023 revised down from 31,442 to 10,994, a drop of 65 per cent.

But there are claims that it underestimates the true picture today because current death rates are increasing in part because of the excess death problem.

The ONS said that because deaths had been relatively higher in 2022, it “may push the trend upwards” but it said the figures were also based on historical baseline data from the past five years and large population rises.

‘There should be an investigation’

Prof Kevin McConway, the emeritus professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University, said there was “no such thing as a correct number of excess deaths” and urged experts to focus on getting to the bottom of what was causing the increased mortality rates.

“The ONS method gives a measure of how many excess deaths there were, but tells us nothing directly about what was the cause of any excess,” he said

“There should be an investigation. Without more work, by the Government and/or some respectable and reliable researchers, this speculation will go on, and it’s not helpful.”

The ONS defended its new methodology, saying it had worked with many academics and organisations for more than a year to make sure the modelling was robust.

Previously excess deaths were calculated based on the five-year average which ignored the growing and ageing population and current death rates.

An ONS spokesman said: “Our new approach accounts for the growth and ageing of the population and provides a robust method for routine monitoring of excess deaths on an ongoing basis.

“The new and old methods estimate similar numbers of excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, the two approaches produce similar peaks in estimated excess mortality in the second quarter of 2020 and the winter of 2020-21.”

Prof Sheila Bird, former programme leader at the MRC Biostatistics Unit of Cambridge University said getting excess deaths right was “highly important for both the public and the Covid Inquiry”.