It is not unexpected. The opinion polls, the maths, and the mood in the Republican party all pointed to Donald Trump sealing the nomination.
November will indeed see a showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
For America’s allies and enemies, that makes it the most consequential US election since 1945.
Nikki Haley was the last hope of the old Republican party – the party that believed in low taxes at home and robustly asserting dominance (sometimes to the irritation of allies) abroad.
Mr Trump – if his rhetoric is to be believed – stands for a re-writing of America’s international role unlike any president since 1945.
His feelings about Nato are well known. He is already using influence over House Republicans to choke off a desperately needed aid package for Ukraine.
The worst-case scenario (or best, if you are Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping) is nothing less than the end of Pax Americana as we know it.
Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin, that would be a dream come true: not only would they win in Ukraine, they would have finally put an end to the “unipolar” US led world they so resent.
Conversely, it is difficult to think of anything more damaging to British strategic interests. Or the interests of Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia….the list goes on.
It may not happen, but it is not hyperbole – a growing number of security and foreign policy experts in London and European capitals are grappling with exactly that question.
The problem is that it would be such a profound change, it is difficult to persuade politicians to take it seriously. It is just too big to contemplate.
But this is not just about Donald Trump.
Isolationism has always been part of America’s political DNA. It is currently in the ascendant.
Even if Joe Biden wins in November, one UK security expert told me this week, America’s allies will have to think hard about standing on their own two feet.
Emily Foster is a globe-trotting journalist based in the UK. Her articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing a nuanced view of the world’s most pressing challenges.
