In our first scenario, Labour would see its seat numbers decline to 403. In our third scenario, they would drop to 380 seats – a majority higher than Boris Johnson secured in 2019.
What it would do is firmly secure the Conservatives as the main opposition party, ahead of the Liberal Democrats by 160 seats.
In current polls, they are projected to be just 63 seats ahead of the third party.
Does Reform have a chance anywhere?
Despite the premise that Reform voters are stealing votes from the Conservatives, the party is now firmly in contention in its own right in some parts of the country.
Across 17 seats, an average of the YouGov and Survation polls suggest that Reform could be within 15 points of the lead party.
In Ashfield, where Lee Anderson, a former Conservative, is representing the party, they are just six points behind Labour. Figures are similarly close in North West Norfolk, Great Yarmouth and Exmouth and Exeter East.
Looking solely at the Survation poll, Reform is actually ahead in these four, as well as three others, including Mr Farage’s seat in Clacton.
However, a large surge in seats for Reform will prove difficult. In the vast amount of seats where they are standing, they have consistent support in the mid-teens, far below the threshold generally needed to become the largest party.
In fewer than one in 20 seats do they manage to surpass 20 per cent of the vote, current polling suggests.
Last week, Mr Farage suggested that, given his party’s surge in the polls, a vote for the Conservatives is, in fact, the vote for Labour.
A clever retort to the Tory attack line, but so far there is only truth in this in a handful of places.
William Turner is a seasoned U.K. correspondent with a deep understanding of domestic affairs. With a passion for British politics and culture, he provides insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage of events within the United Kingdom.
