How the Ukrainians are defeating Russia

Of course, this shouldn’t all be about the final few miles and white-of-the-eyes defence. Intelligence gathering, the ability to spot incoming attacks from the air, layered defence, automated weapons, soft-kill measures – i.e. defeating the threat by jamming its uplink (if it has one) and confusing its targeting or control systems – all form part of the defensive equation that from all videos seen so far, seems to be missing in the Black Sea Fleet. 

However, the real lesson from the Black Sea now isn’t how to defend against this threat – we have been practising that for decades – it is the value of offensive drone operations. Ukraine’s success has not suddenly revealed this to maritime planners; it has banged the nail out of sight though.

With so many systems and companies emerging that specialise in this area, all with competitive products and options, the key will be defining the requirement quickly and coherently enough to attract precious defence funds. This makes me nervous because, frankly, there aren’t any. In fact, as of Tuesday’s budget, there are fewer.

The RAF’s 216 squadron exemplifies this dislocation between requirement and money. Formed in April 2020, it was set up as an experimental unit to test drone swarms. A good idea until it was revealed last week that zero tests have taken place since due to a ‘lack of funds’. US efforts are more advanced and in January, the US Navy reached out to industry looking for, “small Unmanned Surface Vehicle (sUSV) interceptors, capable of autonomously transiting hundreds of miles through contested water space, loitering in an assigned operating area while monitoring for maritime surface threats, and then sprinting to interdict a noncooperative, manoeuvring vessel.” How this develops will be one to watch as funds are similarly squeezed over there.