Vivek Paul, chief investment strategist for the UK at BlackRock, said any expensive election pledges could unnerve investors.
“As inflation falls in the UK and we get closer to the general election date, major UK political parties may be more tempted to promise looser fiscal policy — the more this occurs, the greater the likelihood of the return of the bond vigilantes,” he told Bloomberg News.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said he expected “a year of yield volatility” with a “tug of war” between heavy borrowing which pushes interest rates up, and weak economic growth which holds borrowing costs down.
Michael Eakins, chief investment officer at savings and retirement group Phoenix, added: “Across the G3, so namely the US, eurozone and the UK, 2024 is likely to have record levels of debt issuance.
“When you’re in a world where you’re getting a significant increase in terms of debt issuance, that does point to gilt yields being higher.”
A Treasury insider said the debt issuance facing the market showed the need to keep borrowing under control.
“The best way to keep gilt yields down is keeping a tight hold of public finances, which is what we’re doing. As the Chancellor said, we’ll only cut taxes if it’s affordable and responsible,” the source said.
Robert Johnson is a UK-based business writer specializing in finance and entrepreneurship. With an eye for market trends and a keen interest in the corporate world, he offers readers valuable insights into business developments.
