Will Penny Mordaunt be the next prime minister?

Could Penny Mordaunt lead the Tories into the election? This is the talk this weekend after several papers splashed on a push by Conservative MPs on the right of the party to oust Sunak and replace him with his former leadership rival. The Daily Mail reports that these MPs met with supporters of Mordaunt this week to discuss the possibility of coalescing around her should Sunak face a confidence vote in the coming months. The argument goes that Mordaunt is the only person that would improve the party’s chances after polling suggested she was the only candidate who would fare better than Sunak (by seven points according to one poll).

So, is this all pie in the sky or could it become reality? It’s fair to say it has been a dreadful week for the Tories and Sunak specifically. The defection of Lee Anderson to Reform (I write about the split on the right here), the racism row over comments from a mega Tory donor and the simply fact the Tories are polling at their lowest in some time means that – as one Tory MP puts it – ‘the mood is dark’. Then there’s the ongoing plot to take down Rishi Sunak led by figures largely outside of parliament. Add to that the May local elections where the party is expected to endure heavy losses and there is danger lurking in many places for Sunak and his team.

But it’s still a jump to go from deep Tory unhappiness to changing to their fourth leader in the space of roughly two years. There’s much intrigue over Sunak’s meeting with the 1922 committee of backbenchers this week, but the timing at least was standard – and the conversation more about having the space to go long in the election rather than rush into it.