‘Welsh independence is viable and devolution will collapse without action’, commission finds

A commission looking at the future of Wales has said that Welsh independence is a “viable option”. It has also said that policing, justice, rail services and infrastructure should be devolved to “protect Welsh devolution from attack”.

Two years ago, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was created by the Welsh Government to look at how Cymru could be set up in the future. To understand more about what is really happening in Wales sign up to our newsletter here.

Co-chaired by the academic and former footballer Professor Laura McAllister and former Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams they were looking at three options:

• Entrenching devolution – this would protect devolution legally and could involve arguing for more powers for Wales, including over the justice system, welfare, employment, broadcasting and railways

• A federal structure – this would set up regional governments in England, as well as changing the relationship between the UK government and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, using a written constitution

• Independence – where Wales would become a sovereign country

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Weaknesses of the current system for governing in Wales have been exposed in recent years. Both the pandemic and HS2 have exposed limitations in processes by which decisions are made and funding is allocated. The pandemic exposed the ad hoc nature of communication between the component parts of the UK. Wales First Minister Mark Drakeford and then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson went months without speaking, key disagreements over strategy were played out in press conferences not in meetings, and furlough was only extended when it was felt England needed it.

The decision to class HS2 as an “England and Wales” project, despite the fact that no part of the track was in Wales, meant that Wales missed out on billions of pounds it desperately needed.

An interim report published in 2022 found significant problems with the way Wales was governed within the Union, and that the ‘status quo’ was not a viable or secure foundation for stability and prosperity for Wales.

Speaking to WalesOnline about the Commission’s final report, Professor Laura McAllister said: “I think it’s really important that people do engage with what we say and the recommendations because they’re about their lives. This isn’t the kind of dry analysis of constitutional options in the abstract, it’s very much about delivery of public services, and how politics and governance affects the quality and outcomes of that delivery.

“This is what people themselves have told us. I think we’re the first commission to have embarked on such a broad and wide engagement initiative to reach out to as many communities, people, individuals and groups as we could in Wales, and what we’ve done then is listen very carefully to what they told us.”

On the comments that without urgent changes the current system of devolution could collapse, she said that there “was no status quo anyway” because the “conventions that held the UK together” were being eroded. “I think it’s very serious and we don’t make our statements lightly,” she said. “It’s based on the evidence, the opinions and views that were presented to us.

“What we’ve seen since 2016, and the Brexit referendum particularly, is a process of attrition when it comes to devolved powers. We receive plenty of evidence on that from a range of different organisations inside and outside politics. There’s a sense that the UK Government’s attitude to cooperative relations between itself and the devolved parliaments and governments leaves a lot to be desired. I think what was interesting statistically was that over 90% of people told us that they wanted the government of the UK to work more closely together. And that applies everywhere, by the way – that research comes across the United Kingdom, you know, not just in Wales.

“So I think there’s a real sense that people want devolved government, but they also want there to be a good working relationship between the nations.”

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Not mincing her words, Professor McAllister laid the responsibility for the current failings in one place. “I don’t think you can really blame the Scottish or Welsh governments,” she said. “Probably you will find occasions where they’ve been less than perfect in their dealings but overall, the problems that were being brought to us were problems of the UK Government not showing due respect and communication with the government to Scotland and Wales.

“I think when you also look at the examples we gave of financial interference in Welsh Government budget management and the ignoring of Sewel [a convention that Westminster won’t interfere in devolved areas without consent] nearly a dozen times in recent years then you get a sense that some of the protocols and conventions that have held devolution and UK politics together are being attacked and eroded and there’s no other way of putting it.” Support award-winning journalism with WalesOnline’s Premium app on Apple or Android

The key findings from the Commission’s engagement with the public found:

• People’s understanding of government structures (at UK, Wales or local level) is low, and most people do not initially feel informed enough to contribute to the debate about changing them.

• In general, citizens are interested in constitutional reform, although they may not always recognize that their concerns have constitutional implications.

• Many people conflate constitutional structures with the actions of the government of the day.

• Identity and political affiliation influence people’s view of the way forward.

• Most people in Wales support devolution and would favour greater autonomy, in some form.

• For some people, federalism is an attractive concept, but it is ill-defined and their support diminishes when the practical challenges of creating a federal structure for the UK are spelled out.

• There is support for unwinding devolution and for an independent Wales; these are minority but strongly held views. In recent years, the support for one or the other of these positions has grown significantly.

The report made three recommendations to strengthen democracy:

1. The Welsh Government should strengthen the capacity for democratic innovation and inclusive community engagement in Wales. This should draw on an expert advisory panel, and should be designed in partnership with the Senedd, local government and other partners. New strategies for civic education should be a priority for this work, which should be subject to regular review by the Senedd.

2. Drawing on this expertise, the Welsh Government should lead a project to engage citizens in drafting a statement of constitutional and governance principles for Wales.

3. We recommend that the planned review of the Senedd reforms should be resourced to ensure a robust and evidence-based analysis of the impact of the changes, including from the perspective of the voter and of democratic accountability.

They add that “tackling the immediate flaws in the status quo should be a priority for all the political parties committed to devolution, whatever their view of the long-term destination” and therefore made the following recommendations:

• The Welsh Government should propose to the governments of the UK, Scotland and Northern Ireland that the Westminster Parliament should legislate for inter-governmental mechanisms so as to secure a duty of co-operation and parity of esteem between the governments of the UK.

• The Welsh Government should press the UK Government to present to the Westminster Parliament legislation to specify that the consent of the devolved institutions is required for any change to the devolved powers, except when required for reasons to be agreed between them, such as: international obligations, defence, national security or macroeconomic policy.

• The UK Government should remove constraints on Welsh Government budget management, except where there are macro-economic implications.

• The UK Government should agree to the legislative and executive devolution of responsibility for justice and policing to the Senedd and Welsh Government, on a timescale for achieving the devolution of all parts of the justice system to be agreed by the two governments, starting with policing, probation and youth justice, with necessary funding secured, and provision for shared governance where needed for effective operations.

• The UK Government should agree to the devolution of responsibility for rail services and infrastructure to Wales, with fair funding and shared governance on cross border services.

• The Welsh and UK Governments should establish an expert group to advise urgently on how the devolution settlement and inter-governmental engagement in relation to energy could be reformed to prepare for rapid technical innovation in energy generation and distribution, to ensure that Wales can maximise its contribution to net zero and to the local generation of renewable energy. The remit of the group should include advising on the options for the devolution of the Crown Estate, which should become the responsibility of the devolved government of Wales as it is in Scotland.

• The Welsh and UK Governments should agree mechanisms for a stronger voice for Wales on broadcasting policy, scrutiny and accountability, and robust work should continue on potential routes to devolution.

Commenting on the publication of the’ final report, Labour’s shadow secretary of state for Wales, Jo Stevens (who would be in a good position to enact its findings if Labour won the next General Election, said: “This report is an important contribution to the Welsh Government’s considerations on the future of Wales and how its institutions can best serve its people.

“Labour is the party of devolution and we are committed to reinforcing the status of the Senedd, strengthening intergovernmental working and pushing power out of Westminster and into the hands of communities. A Labour government in Westminster and Cardiff Bay will work together in a true partnership, driving change across the UK after 14 years of Tory decline.”

Responding to the report Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth MS said: “This is a very significant piece of work and sets the tone for the discussion to come on the constitutional future of Wales and I’m excited about the possibilities that are explored in this groundbreaking report.

“It is crystal clear that the status quo and the limited devolution we have is not sustainable. Steps need to be taken immediately to build on the current settlement and as a party we will be urging the implementation of the series of recommendations on strengthening Welsh democracy settlement with immediate effect.

“As somebody who has always believed in our ability to take all the levers of change into our hands, to have a report of this stature spelling out unambiguously that independence is a genuine option for us as a means to realise our potential is a very significant step forward in terms of the constitutional debate in Wales.

“Whilst we in Plaid Cymru will always embrace the ability to take on more powers, this report paints a clear picture that neither an enhanced devolution – and certainly not federalism, will provide the long-term answers we really need. Whilst seeking that path to independence inherently comes with challenges, we balance that against what the report tells us about the rewards.