Ukraine war latest: ‘Undeclared Russian military intelligence officer’ expelled from UK | World News

Each week we ask readers for their questions on the war for our military analysts and international correspondents.

This week, military analyst Sean Bell answers:

Why is Ukraine focusing its drone attacks on oil refineries rather than near the front lines?
Mike

Thanks, Mike, for this topical question.

Although the ultimate metric of success in this brutal war is territory gained, to achieve that outcome requires a more complex strategy than simply focusing on the frontline battle.

One of the reasons that the Royal Air Force was formed as an independent service was the recognition that greater impact could often be achieved by targeting enemy logistics and supply lines behind the frontline, rather than simply focusing effort on the “close battle”.  

Military action is ultimately driven by political will to achieve a desired end-state; the military simply creates the conditions in which a political outcome can be achieved.  

At the tactical level of warfare, the focus is on the battles of individual soldiers and units prevailing against tactical targets.

However, at the other end of the spectrum, senior military strategists seek to attack the enemy’s “centre of gravity” – the one thing that the enemy cannot afford to lose and thus must protect at all costs.

‘Fight smarter’

In the Second World War, much of the Allied bombing effort was targeting German industrial capacity, as without the ability to regenerate military equipment and ammunition, the war would not be sustainable.  

Ukraine has a smaller army than Russia, and so any conventional attritional battle would favour Russia.

Therefore, Ukraine has to try to “fight smarter” and erode Russia’s will – or capacity – to fight.  

A war on this scale consumes huge quantities of resource, which has to be funded in some way.  

Russia’s oil exports fund Vladimir Putin’s military campaign and also pay for imports of vital munitions from North Korea and Iran.  

By targeting the enemy’s oil facilities Ukraine will be aiming to reduce Russia’s export capacity, which in turn impacts Russia’s ability to fund the war.  

That might not help the close battle, but could undermine Russia’s commitment to a longer-duration conflict.

And, although drones are an “irritation” to the frontline forces, the quantity of explosives they are able to deliver is relatively small, so their effect is relatively limited.  

However, an oil facility is very vulnerable to a relatively small-scale explosion, which can spread swiftly to destroy a crucial part of Russia’s critical national infrastructure – more bang per buck.

So, although Ukraine desperately needs to stop Russia from breaking through its frontlines, we can expect to see Ukraine continue to target energy infrastructure as part of a broader strategy in its war with Russia.