Tottenham’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League took a huge blow on Wednesday night after both Arsenal and Manchester City were knocked out of Europe. It leaves the UEFA coefficient rankings hanging by a thread for England.
Spurs currently sit fifth in the Premier League table, meaning they are on course to miss out on a place in the Champions League for the 2024/25 season. However, the new format being implemented next season in the competition could fifth-place warrant a place – though that is now looking increasingly unlikely.
Two of the four extra places are handed to countries with the highest UEFA coefficient ranking based on results from teams’ in Europe this campaign. Points are awarded for how far each club goes in a UEFA competition, with the average being sought for each country when the scores are divided by the number of the clubs taking part in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League.
Countries get two points for win, one for a draw (after extra time) and additional bonus points for progressing to the next round. Ahead of Wednesday night’s double-header – which saw Arsenal take on Bayern Munich and Manchester City host Real Madrid – England (16.750) were outside the two places with Italy (18.428) and Germany (17.214) leading the way.
Borussia Dortmund’s progress to the semi-final had already given England’s hopes of gaining an additional spot a blow, but the coefficient rankings could change again with Liverpool and West Ham in Europa League action on Thursday. Aston Villa can also aid things as they look to progress past Lille in the Conference League.
Before kick-off on Wednesday England had 134 points which, when divided by the eight teams representing the country in Europe, gave them a coefficient ranking of 16.750. Germany had 120.5 points meaning they sit above with 17.214.
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The failure of City and Arsenal to qualify has left things on the edge, and it could all be sown up in the worst possible way on Thursday. With that being said, football.london has taken a look at the best-case scenarios for Spurs.
Italy remain at the top on 18.428 with Germany moving up to second with 17.642 thanks to Bayern’s victory in Bavaria. This had extended the lead on England, who are now on 16.875 heading into Thursday night’s games.
England could have moved to 17.500 if both Arsenal and City qualified for the next stage. If only one of the Premier League duo had progressed, England would have still been behind Germany on 17.125.
There are different outcomes depending on how the ties finish. For example, if Arsenal’s trip to the Allianz Arena had been a draw and decided on penalties, the winning team would receive one bonus point for reaching the semi-final and one for the tie ending as a draw.
The two points awarded for a win still applies to Europa League and Conference League ties, meaning Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa could still boost England’s chances on Thursday night.
The best-case scenario for Tottenham on Wednesday was wins for both Arsenal and City in either the 90 minutes or extra-time. Bayern winning without the need for penalties is a serious blow, although City making it past extra time does limit the damage – for now.
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Olivia Martin is a dedicated sports journalist based in the UK. With a passion for various athletic disciplines, she covers everything from major league championships to local sports events, delivering up-to-the-minute updates and in-depth analysis.
