Earth could witness the worst solar storm in 165 years as five streams of plasma that erupted from the sun this week are set to make crash into our atmosphere tonight.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed Friday that the worst-case scenario would be what happened during the 1859 Carrington event, which set telegraph stations on fire, cutting communications worldwide.
In our modern-day society a geomagnetic storm – a major disturbance of Earth’s magnetosphere- of that magnitude would cause widespread electrical disruptions, blackouts and damage to critical infrastructure.
Scientists have also predicted that three of the five streams, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), could combine to create a powerful ‘cannibal CME.’
Data about what is in store for our planet will likely be captured around 8 pm ET when the explosions of plasma racing through space will be nearly one million miles from our planet – and NOAA plans to issue alerts immediately.
Sunspot AR3664, which released flares this week, had reached a size that now competes with the sunspot responsible for the Carrington even
At least five streams of plasma are barreling toward Earth, which officials said could unfold like the worst geomagnetic super-storm in history when they make impact Friday night
‘We anticipate we will get one shock after another. We are really buckling down here,’ Clinton Wallace, director of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), said during the Friday media briefing.
While officials are predicting an event a step below than Carrington, which was a geomagnetic storm level 5 (G5), they are not discounting that we could reach a an event on the lower end of the same measurement that ranges from G1 to G5.
Dahl explained that 165 years ago, auroras reached as far as Central America and Hawaii.
While NOAA is not anticipating a G5, Dahl said ‘we can, of course, not discount that we could reach kind of a low end.’
‘We are a little concerned because we have not seen this in a long time, [which is why] we thought it warranted special attention, ‘ he continued.
‘We have discussed this with FEMA because they need to know, not that we are expecting a catastrophic collapse.’
NOAA issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch late Thursday night, noting a a large sunspot cluster had produced several moderate to strong solar flares since Wednesday at 5am ET
Earth could witness the worst solar storm in 165 years as five streams of plasma released from the sun this week are set to make crash into our atmosphere tonight. NASA released a photo showing a solar flare released from the sun on May 9
NOAA issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch late Thursday night, noting a a large sunspot cluster had produced several moderate to strong solar flares since Wednesday at 5am ET.
Sunspots are cooler parts on the sun’s surface caused by massive changes in our star’s magnetic field. Often bigger than planets, sunspots appear dark on the sun’s surface because they are cooler than other parts – although they’re still very hot, around 6,500°F.
‘This is an unusual and potentially historic event,’ said Wallace.
NOAA is currently preparing for the CMEs to reach NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), which was designed to study spaceborne energetic particles and sits about about 870,000 miles.
‘That’s how we identify the arrival of these one million miles from Earth at that point. When we see the CMEs arrive at the satellite,’ Dahl said.
‘That’s when we will know the intensity that may develop here at Earth by different things in the solar wind that we look for.
‘So with the speed of these events, roughly, we’re talking an average speed here of around 500 miles per second.
‘That basically means there could be about 20 to 45 minute of lead time.’
He continued to explain that the reason this geomagnetic storm ‘is a giant’ is because of two colossal sunspot clusters: one in the northern hemisphere of the sun and another in the southern hemisphere.
Sunspot AR3664, which released flares this week, had reached a size that now competes with the sunspot responsible for the Carrington event.
AR3664 is more than 124,000 miles across – about 16 times the diameter of Earth.
That’s one of the largest spot clusters we’ve seen in some time,’ said Dahl.
NOAA explained that GPS could see the most disruptions.
Rob Steenburgh, Space Scientist for SWPC, said: ‘In the most severe cases, you’ll see an actual loss of lock, so the so the receiver will lose lock on the satellite, and then that information that navigation of this navigation and timing information will be unavailable until it is able to reestablish the lock.
‘So outage, with any luck, should not be prolonged.
It’s going to depend on the number of spacecraft that are available to connect to the receiver and where they are on the horizon.’
NOAA said that people should prepare as they would for a power outage – batteries, flash lights and generators.
However, the agency has been intact with infrastructure operators in preparation for the geomagnetic storm.
‘[People] won’t have to do anything. And if everything’s working like it should, will be stable they’ll be able to go about their their daily lives,’ said Steenburgh.
‘You may get to see a fairly impressive aurora display.’
Dr. Thomas Hughes is a UK-based scientist and science communicator who makes complex topics accessible to readers. His articles explore breakthroughs in various scientific disciplines, from space exploration to cutting-edge research.
