The JN.1 Omicron variant is highly infectious and has taken over as the dominant Covid variant in the UK – but Professor Sir Andrew Pollard says it’s not the biggest threat to the vulnerable
A surge in cases of a new coronavirus strain is on the cards in the coming days as children go back to school, an infections and immunity expert has warned.
The dominant JN.1 Covid variant is particularly highly infectious and has soared to 51.4% of all UK Covid cases, as of Christmas Day, making it three times as common as the second biggest strain, according to the CovSpectrum database. Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, Professor of Paediatric Infection and Immunity at the University of Oxford, said added to that is the increase in flu numbers, already putting strain on the NHS – and he predicts Covid will be a recurring problem we have to combat “forever”.
“It’s not that we’re at a point where there’s a terribly serious risk of the pandemic coming back, we just have another virus that is adding to the usual winter pressures,” he told the Mirror. “Of course we still have quite a lot of people in hospital from the previous wave. It’s not pandemic numbers, but it’s quite an extra burden on the NHS.”
Pointing to the latest Covid data from the UK Health Agency released just before the New Year, he said positive tests appear to be going down – but there is a caveat. “The one point of caution there is that with viruses you have to have people together to spread them. We always see a drop in cases over holiday periods.
“So it’s actually what’s going to happen next as children go back to school on Monday, and most people have taken time off over New Year and are starting to go back to work. There is likely to be a rise in infections in the population over the course of the next week.”
Referring to JN.1 specifically, Prof Pollard said it is part of the Omicron family, a subvariant of BA.2.86. He continued: “What’s important about it is that it’s the one that is currently better at spreading and that’s why it’s become dominant. It’s just better than the other variants out there at the moment.
“We’ve seen that recurrently as new variants emerge. They just happen to be fitter and knock all the other ones out. They also do that because they are better at evading the immune responses we have in our nose and throats that would prevent older variants from causing infections.
“I see this as one that is likely to spread extremely well in the population but there is that positive news that it might have been on the way down in the last data. There’s no real evidence that it’s much worse than any of the previous variants in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. But because it is spreading more, it is adding to those pressures on the NHS. I don’t think we should consider it innocuous, it is a bit of a problem, it’s not worse than the last variants we had a few months ago.”
Some reports suggest JN.1 has brought about new symptoms not seen before – namely trouble sleeping and anxiety. However, Prof Pollard is not convinced. He said: “It’s very difficult to assign symptoms compared with previous variants unless you’re collecting data in a very vigorous way.
“We know the virus affects the upper airway and so if it gives you cold like symptoms which could affect your ability to sleep. So that’s not different from some of the previous variants which could give you a cough or a blocked or runny nose. All of those things will affect sleep, so it doesn’t surprise me that poor sleep is a symptom. I don’t think it’s a new symptom.”
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has said the proportion of JN.1 is increasing more rapidly than other variants across the US and there was an upward trend in hospitalisations at the end of December. It’s led local officials in several states to reinstate mask mandates in healthcare settings.
Asked if JN.1 could result in Covid measures being re-introduced in the UK, Prof Pollard said: “I think it’s unlikely that for the whole population we’d go back to mask wearing as a result of this variant. You could imagine a situation where there are a lot of infections around and that there could be advice around for vulnerable populations, just as if we were dealing with patients who’d had a bone marrow transplant you’d wear a mask when around them.”
The unique issue surrounding Covid still is its unpredictability, said Prof Pollard. “We know with flu that it does a fairly predictable thing every year in that it comes back and essentially what comes back each year is a new variant,” he said. He explained it returns each winter fuelled by the humidity in the atmosphere, and people spending more time in doors and mixing closely with small groups.
“What’s been slightly different with Covid so far is it’s not been so predictable when the next wave is going to come. The thing we’re not sure about at the moment is with Covid variants if the timing will be like flu, in other words it will become a winter issue where it can only cause a lot of spreading in winter because of how we behave or whether it’s just more efficient than flu at spreading and it’s able to have new peaks throughout the year each time a new variant emerges,” he said.
“Certainly when you look at the last four years – it’s not a predictable pattern of winter peak, the reason why for the NHS a winter peak is important is because the other viruses are already around and so it puts increasing pressure on the NHS so that’s why vaccine programmes have been, to some extent, focused on the autumn to try and make sure you don’t have three viruses causing lots of problems all at the same time, but protect particularly the frail in the population who are at risk from all of those viruses.”
Asked if Covid will be around forever, Prof Pollard said: “I think yes is the answer to that. There’s no reason why it should completely fizzle out. It’s shown already that it’s very good at adapting to immunity that we all build up to a variant that has spread. So, the previous variants, we’re very immune to those, they’re not spreading anymore. But it’s very good at adapting to that and generating a new variant which can still spread even though we’ve got an immune population.
“My prediction is that rather like flu, it will be with us for the rest of our lives. The uncertainty is whether it will become a winter peak without anything the rest of the year or whether it will continue this slightly unpredictable behaviour with waves at different times. But the important thing is if the other times of the year it’s less than a problem for the health system.”
“The virus is going to be around and we are just going to have to get used to it,” he added. “We are obviously concerned when flu comes, but because we just had a pandemic there’s an exquisite focus on each new variant, but in many ways each time they appear they are doing the same thing. For most of us they are causing an unpleasant cold, respiratory tract infection, but for anyone who is very frail with health conditions it may be the thing that precipitates admission to hospital.
“It is important to say in that last two years flu is much more likely to do that. We’ve got lots of reporting about Covid but flu remains the bigger threat to those frailer individuals in society.”
Sarah Carter is a health and wellness expert residing in the UK. With a background in healthcare, she offers evidence-based advice on fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being, promoting healthier living for readers.
