THERE was a moment during The Sun’s grilling of Sir Keir Starmer on Monday evening when I realised he finally really knows he’s going to be Prime Minister.
After months of seeming to never quite believe the polls, there was a caution and nervousness to his engagement with the public — not least our fearless and sharp readers.
But halfway through the Labour chief’s turn on our Election Showdown, he swivelled his chair away from me and took on the audience.
While his new-found confidence worked for a bit, it also left him high and dry when the room decided they did not like what they were hearing.
A brilliant old boy named Boris took him to task on boats, and left the guy likely to be running the country by this time next week on a sticky wicket.
So while the pinch-himself phase might soon be over, with Starmer and his blank canvas of a manifesto heading into Downing Street, it’s not all rosy for the soon-to-be boss.
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He will cross the threshold of No10 as the least popular Leader of the Opposition to win an election in recorded history.
Yes, Sunak is deeply unpopular, but we knew that and that’s why he’s packing his bags.
But this historical fact should not be ignored by Labour.
According to pollsters Ipsos-Mori, Starmer’s net satisfaction score is already at minus -19.
More than half of voters — 52 per cent — already say they are dissatisfied with his performance.
While Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Miliband had worse numbers while in Opposition, crucially they did not win.
By contrast, in 1997, Tony Blair boogied down Downing Street to Things Can Only Get Better with a net satisfaction of +22, with just 29 per cent of voters saying they did not like him.
Given in that election 30 per cent voted Tory, and 52 per cent of the country are not going to vote Tory this time round, Starmer — and his army of irritating online bores — cannot just blame party politics for the naysaying.
Massive in-tray of s**t
Talking of Conservatives, David Cameron went from Leader of the Opposition to PM with a net approval rating of +3 and Thatcher had +11.
No one else has made the jump from Leader of the Opposition to No10 while the pollsters have been keeping tally, and Sir Keir will be the first to do so with a negative rating.
Something very odd seems to be about to happen — Starmer is both unpopular and about to win.
While that shows you the depth to which the Tories have plunged, it should not be simply brushed off as sour grapes by Starmer’s genuine fans.
Not least because of the massive in-tray of s**t that is about to greet the new PM and his as-yet-untested team: Labour have been out of power for a very long time.
With Britain’s prisons system at risk of dangerous collapse, major utilities firms teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and 800 migrants landing illegally on some days, it could be a very Cruel Summer for the alleged Sir Swiftie.
Aside from a possible cut in interest rates and a forecast drop in legal migration, with England now looking destined for an early bath at the Euros, there is little good news coming down the track for the new government.
Even a popular leader would struggle in this scenario.
Far from things only getting better, it could get quite ugly pretty quickly.
Something very odd seems to be about to happen — Starmer is both unpopular and about to win
One glimmer of hope for the new regime is that the Tories look set to eat each other for a few years longer — with some party figures barely waiting for a vote to be cast before beginning a very public post-mortem.
Wiser hands want a delay to any leadership election conclusion well into the autumn, or even December, as happened after their defeat in 2005.
Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, under the beady watch of his mentor Lord Cameron, is touted as caretaker leader until then — but only if he can hold his seat.
Should an early contest be forced by whatever rump is left of Tory MPs, then grandee names such as David Davis and even Liam Fox are being floated around as possible caretakers for a couple of years while the party reels from what is likely to be a massive thumping.
“A summer of reflection” before the rock-throwing starts” is what figures on the Conservatives’ powerful Party Board are hoping for, but many suspect it’s wishful thinking.
Cruel Summers all round it is then.
IT was not long before the nanny state got bored of telling us to stop drinking three pints in an evening or campaigning to stop grown adults sinking cherry ice Lost Marys.
Now they want to slap fag packet-style health warnings on white bread and ready meals.
But it’s the fervour in which the so-called political betting scandal has been whipped up that has got my hackles rising.
Yes, insider trading by MPs is clearly unethical, and the public will make their views known on that at the ballot box next week.
But the usual suspects are back to try to make this about anyone having a punt.
Beware the pious tones and radio sermons.
A horrible alliance of snobs and puritans will always sneer at gambling and look for any excuse to make it more difficult.
And Tory fools have given them yet more ammunition.
SIX-WEEK SUMMER BREAK? TO HOL WITH THAT!
WITH the Commons due to go on its long summer holiday just days after getting up and running again after the election, it’s no surprise Sir Keir Starmer’s team are eyeing a delay to the end of term.
As they prepare to hit the ground running in No10, they could even bring back MPs at the end of August to power through their plans.
There are already grumbles in Westminster over “Starmer the Sunshine Snatcher”, but it might just be the most popular thing the likely next PM could do.
Pollsters for More In Common say the public overwhelmingly supports measures to decrease the time MPs spend on mid-year break: 56 per cent said it should be no longer than three weeks.
Only nine per cent of the public think the summer recess should be six weeks or longer, as it currently is.
Number cruncher Ed Hodgson tells me: “The public have low trust in politicians . . . people back significant reductions in the parliamentary summer recess, and doing so would be an important way for the new government to show they are serious about bringing about change”.
Wheels down!
William Turner is a seasoned U.K. correspondent with a deep understanding of domestic affairs. With a passion for British politics and culture, he provides insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage of events within the United Kingdom.
