FOMC minutes: Almost all members agreed it would be appropriate to pivot dovishly in 2024

  • Consumer price inflation continued to decline, but recent progress was uneven.
  • Disinflation process was continuing along a path that was generally expected to be somewhat uneven
  • Participants generally judged that risks to the achievement of the
    Committee’s employment and inflation goals were moving into better
    balance
  • Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of
    high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased
    their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%
  • A few participants remarked that they expected core nonhousing services
    inflation to decline as the labor market continued to move into better
    balance and wage growth moderated further
  • Participants discussed the still-elevated rate of housing services
    inflation and commented on the uncertainty regarding when and by how
    much lower readings for rent growth on new leases would pass through to
    this category of inflation
  • Some participants noted that increased immigration, which had likely been
    boosting the growth of personal consumption spending, may also have
    been adding to the demand for housing
  • Many participants pointed to indicators such as higher credit card
    balances, greater use of buy-now-pay-later programs, or rising
    delinquency rates on some types of consumer loans as evidence that the
    finances of some lower- and moderate-income households might be coming
    under pressure
  • The economic projection prepared by the staff for the March meeting was
    stronger than the January forecast. The upward revision in the forecast
    primarily reflected the staff’s incorporation of a higher projected path
    for population due to a boost from immigration.

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