China will stop Iran from causing a global oil spike

This big change in the interest rate outlook could prove to be a dampener on the recent uptick in housing market activity and will be a blow to all borrowers – household and corporate – desperate for lower borrowing costs. Should there end up being only one rate cut this year, that would also further undermine the Tories’ ability to challenge Labour’s huge poll lead, harming their election chances even more.

Part of the reason inflation came down last month was because the rise in UK food prices has been steadily easing. Having hit 19.2pc last spring, food price inflation has since fallen from 7pc in January to 4pc in March – helping bring headline inflation down.

At the same time though, the overall inflation drop wasn’t as steep as expected, largely because utility and motor fuel prices, far from falling, have lately been going up.

The ONS fine print shows that household utility prices – including gas, water and electricity – were 1.6pc lower last month than in March 2023. Yet between February and March, those same household bills rose 0.2pc on average – so the drop in annual utility inflation hasn’t just slowed but has lately started to reverse.

The same trend can be seen when it comes to motor fuels – only more so. The combined average price of petrol and diesel fell 6.5pc during the 12 months to February but just 3.7pc during the year to March, with the drop in annual motor fuel inflation slowing.

But again, more recently, the price of unleaded petrol has nudged up, from 144.8 pence per litre in February to 146.8 pence last month. Since this latest ONS inflation data was published, in fact, the AA has warned that drivers now face paying more than 150 pence per litre for petrol – no less than £82.50 to fill the tank of a typical 55-litre car. And already, says the AA, diesel prices now average 157.7 pence per litre, up almost 2pc since mid-March.