Centre-right projected to win Portugal election

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) was projected to win a parliamentary election on Sunday but was set to fall far short of a majority, according to exit polls, turning the far-right Chega party into a potential kingmaker.

The forecast results signal that the ruling Socialists will be ejected from power for the first time in eight years after a snap vote triggered by a corruption scandal within government, which prompted the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa.

The forecast result would mark another important advance for the right in the EU, where conservatives have won elections or joined coalitions in Italy, Greece, Sweden and Finland in the past two years.

But it leaves the Democratic Alliance, led by Luís Montenegro, facing difficult choices. Montenegro has consistently ruled out striking a governing pact with Chega, an anti-establishment party branded as racist and xenophobic by its critics. Without Chega’s parliamentary support, however, the Democratic Alliance could not reach a majority.

Instead it would need to rely on an abstention by the Socialists in a parliamentary vote enabling a new government to take power. Pedro Nuno Santos, the new Socialist leader, said during the campaign that if his party could not form a government it would not block another grouping’s attempt to do so.

André Ventura, Chega’s charismatic 41-year-old leader, said on Sunday that the results “mark the end of bipartisanship” in the country. “There will be a strong rightwing majority in Portugal . . . We are available to provide a stable government in Portugal. AD asked for a majority. Today the Portuguese spoke out and said they want a two-party government from AD and Chega.”

Asked if he would call Montenegro tonight, Ventura said: “Let’s see. Now I’m going to call my mother.”

The Democratic Alliance made no comment on potential parliamentary alliances, but Hugo Soares, vice-president of the Social Democratic party, which forms the alliance’s core, said the “projections point to a great feeling of change in the country”.

According to exit polls by three television stations, the Democratic Alliance won between 27.6 per cent and 33 per cent of the vote, while the Socialists secured 24.2-29.5 per cent. Chega cemented its place as the country’s third-largest party with 14-21.6 per cent of ballots cast.

The election was called following Costa’s resignation in November on the day police arrested five people and raided 43 government buildings and homes in a probe into alleged corruption related to investment projects. Costa has not been formally accused of wrongdoing but is still being investigated by prosecutors.

Chega has been fiercely critical of the Socialists and Social Democrats, the two mainstream parties that have dominated Portuguese politics for many years — and the corruption scandal that felled Costa played perfectly into Ventura’s hands. But he has stirred a deal of passion with his attacks on immigrants and Portugal’s small Roma community.

The election was marked by voter anger over a cost of living crisis in which soaring housing costs — driven in part by an influx of foreign buyers — have left millions of Portuguese struggling to afford appropriate homes.

In the campaign Montenegro said the Socialists had wasted the opportunity of the parliamentary majority they won in 2022 and he rubbished the idea that the centre-left party had ended the era of austerity. “Maximum taxes, minimum public services. What could be more austere than this?” Montenegro said. “Having an income per person that is at the bottom of the European table. What could be more austere?”

The Democratic Alliance is more moderate than many of Europe’s mainstream conservative parties, but it has vowed to break with nearly a decade of centre-left rule by cutting taxes and giving greater encouragement to the private sector.

It now falls to Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to nominate a new prime minister, which he is likely to do after consulting with the parties in the coming days. The chosen candidate could take a week or two to try to form a government, if necessary with other parties.