Everton and Nottingham Forest may not discover their relegation fate until AFTER the Premier League season has finished.
The Toffees are celebrating after their ten-point penalty for breaching profit and sustainability rules was reduced to six points on appeal.
However, both Everton and Forest have fresh PSR charges hanging over their heads.
Much remains up in the air over the charges and talkSPORT.com has the latest on what it all means for both clubs.
Why could Everton and Nottingham Forest be relegated after the season ends?
The hearing for Everton and Forest over these PSR breaches is scheduled for early March.
The Times’ Martyn Ziegler claims Forest’s will take place over two days, March 7 and 8.
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An Independent Commission will look at both cases, and they must confirm a punishment no later than April 8.
If points deductions are handed out, both clubs would get seven days to launch an appeal.
The result of that process would have to be confirmed before the Premier League’s AGM.
This year’s AGM is set for May 24, five days after the conclusion of the season, which throws up all sorts of possible scenarios.
Either side could end the campaign in the bottom three and then, a few days later, have some points added on and survive through the appeal process.
It could also work the other way if the Independent Commission deem the appeal to be a waste of time or if more evidence comes to light.
Of course, you would hope for all the clubs in the relegation battle, this situation is sorted out well before the end of the season.
Why has Everton’s point deduction been reduced?
The Toffees still could face another point deduction from their second PSR charge, but for now, they’ve achieved a small victory.
After initially being deducted ten points and plunged into the relegation zone, Sean Dyche’s men have been awarded four back, taking them clear of the bottom three for now.
Immediately, Everton submitted an appeal stating they felt the sanction was unfair, and the Appeal Board agreed.
They believed the ten-point deduction to be disproportionate to Everton’s financial breaches.
The Appeal Board also rejected the idea that Everton didn’t act in good faith throughout the process, which is why they’ve been given four points back.
In a statement, the club said: “We are satisfied our appeal has resulted in a reduction in the points sanction.
“We understand the Appeal Board considered the 10-point deduction originally imposed to be inappropriate when assessed against the available benchmarks of which the club made the Commission aware, including the position under the relevant EFL regulations, and the 9-point deduction that is imposed under the Premier League’s own rules in the event of insolvency.
“The club is also particularly pleased with the Appeal Board’s decision to overturn the original Commission’s finding that the Club failed to act in utmost good faith.
“That decision, along with reducing the points deduction, was an incredibly important point of principle for the club on appeal. The club, therefore, feels vindicated in pursuing its appeal.
“The club remains fully committed to cooperating with the Premier League in respect of the ongoing proceedings brought for the accounting period ending in June 2023.”
talkSPORT understands the Toffees are hopeful they will avoid anything too serious in the second round of breaches.
But there could still be further problems on the horizon for Everton, which means it’s up to Dyche’s players to get the club as far up the table as possible.
Football finance expert Stefan Borson does anticipate a further points deduction and Everton’s argument about double jeopardy [being deducted twice in the same season] doesn’t hold up.
Speaking on talkSPORT, he said: “This thing about double jeopardy is wrong. This thing is about natural justice in taking a three-year period in which you’ve been punished for two already, and the second Independent Commission will have no issue understanding what is fair in that context and understanding that they shouldn’t be punished twice for the same period.
“That said, it will clearly see another breach as being a serious matter because of the things you look at in the assessment of the PSR is the trend and clearly the trend has gone against them in breaching because if the trend had continued to improve, they wouldn’t have been in breach.
“Everton have had pretty big losses for 2022/23 – they haven’t released their accounts yet, but they’re due to be released publicly by the end of March – but we know they were signed off in November or December, and like many clubs, they’ve held onto them.
“We don’t know what the number for Everton is, but we know that the loss for 22/23 was very big, and therefore, they will still suffer a serious punishment.
“I think you can work on the basis that the starting point will be another six, and then you’ll discount for the two years where they’ve already had a penalty, and it gets you back to two or maybe three , or maybe one [points deducted].
“I still think they’ll get an additional points deduction, it’s just that it’ll be assessed in the overall context, it’s just that most of their arguments are unlikely to succeed because they’ve already been run, and so I think it’s a relatively straight-forward decision for the Independent Commission on Everton.”
What’s going on with Nottingham Forest?
The Premier League confirmed in January 2024 that Forest had been found guilty of breaking PSR rules.
The top-flight regulations state that no team over a three-year period can lose more than £105million, while if a side was in the EFL, it’s less than that.
Forest were promoted from the Championship in 2022, meaning they have less wriggle room than their competitors.
But in that time, they’ve spent nearly £250million on 45 players and made just £5m back in players sales for the period they have been found guilty.
Brennan Johnson was sold in the summer of 2023 to Tottenham, but that sale is included in the next three-year period.
So, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men face a potentially big points deduction, which could relegate them.
In a statement, the club said: “Nottingham Forest acknowledges the statement from the Premier League confirming that the club has today been charged with a breach of the league’s profitability and Sustainability Rules.
“The club intends to continue to cooperate fully with the Premier League on this matter and are confident of a speedy and fair resolution.”
And Borson thinks Forest’s punishment will be similar to Everton’s.
Speaking on talkSPORT, he said: “It’s a similar sort of equation for Nottingham Forest. I’d be slightly concerned if I were a Forest fan because of the aggravating factors. It looks like they spent recklessly, and that’s something that will put them further up the scale of punishment.
“Putting them further down the scale, however, is that they only breached one year of Premier League financial fair play, and so when a team has been promoted, you have an allowance from the EFL for two of the years and a Premier League allowance for one of the years so in essence £61million was the target and in the two years in the EFL they were there or thereabouts, so they may well get away with the first two years of the period – partly because they didn’t breach by very much and partly because the Premier League isn’t going to know how to deal with it because it’s not in their remit.
“I would think that Forest are probably looking at something like two to three points, plus the potential of some aggravating factor around the recklessness of the spending, minus the potential of what the appeal commission describe as the golden mitigation which Sheffield Wednesday had when they sold their stadium which Nottingham Forest are hinting will be Brennan Johnson.
“I think it’s very unlikely that the paperwork surrounding Johnson matches the tone of their appeal, so I suspect they will not get mitigation for Johnson, and therefore, it will be how big an aggravating factor is the recklessness and how they deal with this two-year stub period when they were in the EFL.”
Olivia Martin is a dedicated sports journalist based in the UK. With a passion for various athletic disciplines, she covers everything from major league championships to local sports events, delivering up-to-the-minute updates and in-depth analysis.
