Vladimir Putin will not be able to fight another war after Ukraine as Russia will not have enough men to maintain an army, according to a geopolitical expert.
Putin this week said he would agree to a ceasefire “immediately” if Kyiv agreed to relinquish all territories Moscow illegally annexed since the invasion began.
Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the proposal as Ukraine maintained it seeks to liberate all occupied regions, including Crimea.
Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan suggested the protraction of the war would however spell the end of Putin and his army as he noted current casualty rates suggest Moscow would not have enough young men to “replenish” its files.
Mr Zeihan said: “Remember two things. Number one: Russia never fights short wars.
“They do short intimidations, their wars are always long because they’re always about human waves.
“Number two: if they do this, this is their last war because there are not enough Russians under the age of 20 to theoretically repopulate the system. So when this is done, one way or another, Russia is done.
Mr Zeihan comments came as he was asked to comment on reports suggesting the Kremlin already lost over half a million men since the start of the war. Reports have also suggested another million conscripted have fled the front.
Speaking to Times Radio, he added: “The Russians had eight million men under 20, that’s what they started the war with.
“If they lost half a million now, and a million have fled, that still leaves them with six and a half million bodies to throw at this problem.
“To be perfectly blunt, the Russians have yet to fully mobilise. Most of the people they’ve brought in through their draft system have been minorities from ethnically, and economically disadvantaged areas.
“They haven’t really gotten into the core of what the country is capable of.”
He added: “But at this rate, there is no way the Russians can keep this up for another eight years – and I know that sounds like a long time.”
World leaders converged on Lake Lucerne on Saturday to discuss how to bring peace to war-ravaged Ukraine, though any hopes of a real breakthrough were muted by the absence of Russia.
Attendees faced a tricky balancing act, with many chastising Russia for breaking international law while hedging their positions to leave the door open for Moscow to join future peace talks that might bring about an end to the conflict one day.
US Vice President Kamala Harris reiterated America’s full backing for Ukraine and announced $1.5 billion in new US assistance for an array of projects such as energy infrastructure and civilian security.
Emily Foster is a globe-trotting journalist based in the UK. Her articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing a nuanced view of the world’s most pressing challenges.
