By Emily Stearn, Health Reporter For Mailonline
08:16 22 Mar 2024, updated 08:22 22 Mar 2024
The extent of England and Wales’ baby bust was today laid bare by shock analysis showing no authority has a fertility rate above ‘replacement’ level.
MailOnline can today reveal that the worst-hit areas have seen birth rates plummet by 39 per cent since the turn of the century.
Nationwide, women are having fewer babies than at any time since the 30s, laying bare the reality of the ongoing crisis that threatens to cause economic turmoil and pile huge pressure on the NHS and social care.
For a population to sustain itself, the total fertility rate — the number of babies each woman has in her lifetime — must exceed 2.1.
But our probe reveals that the rate stands below the one mark in the City of London.
Other parts of the capital, Cambridge and Brighton either hover at the one-mark or just above it.
MailOnline’s full analysis is available to view in an searchable map which showcases the fertility rate of all of the 330-plus authorities in England and Wales and how they have changed since 2001.
Timelapse data, plotted onto a fascinating slope chart, also illustrates how the rate has fallen for each individual neighbourhood.
It comes after alarming research today warned that three in four countries face the threat of ‘underpopulation’ by 2050 because of plunging birth rates.
By 2100 this could rise to 97 per cent of all nations, in what experts have described as a ‘staggering social change’.
Powerhouses such as Britain and the US will have to become reliant on immigration to avoid ‘immense’ consequences, The Lancet study concluded.
Without replenishment of an ageing population, scientists claim public services and economic growth are at risk. Ever-declining birth rates will also heap extra pressure on the NHS and social care.
Commentators today warned policymakers need to ‘wake up to the fact that falling fertility rates are one of the greatest threats’ to the West.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows the fertility rate in England and Wales slumped to 1.49 in 2022, down from 1.55 in 2021.
It means rates have almost halved since peaking at just shy of 3 in the mid-60s baby boom.
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The 2.1 recommendation was last hit in 2020 by just five local authorities — Slough, Luton, Barking and Dagenham, Harrow and Peterborough.
MailOnline found that almost eight in ten areas (255 of 331) have seen a drop in their fertility rate since 2001. Fourteen have stayed flat.
Tower Hamlets has witnessed the most significant fall (39 per cent), logging a rate of 1.11 in 2022 — down from 1.82.
It was followed by Hackney (down 37 per cent, from 2.08 to 1.31) and Lambeth (down 33 per cent, from 1.64 to 1.1).
Outside of London, Brighton experienced the largest decrease over the two decades (26 per cent, from 1.35 to 1).
South Staffordshire, meanwhile, reported the biggest rise — up 13 per cent from 1.44 in 2001 to 1.63.
But over the last five years, rates have dipped far more dramatically, with just seven local authorities recording a rise.
North East Derbyshire saw the highest increase at 4 per cent, from 1.53 to 1.65.
The City of London and Cambridge were among the biggest falls, logging drops of 45 and 44 per cent, respectively — 0.63 down from 1.14 and 1 from 1.79.
According to The Lancet study, the UK’s birth rate is predicted to fall to 1.3 children per woman of childbearing age by 2100.
The US will see a similar downward trajectory as the UK.
Instead, half of all babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa by 2100.
Fertility replacement doesn’t account for the impact of migration, meaning overall population levels can still increase in a country despite a drop in fertility rates.
The threat of underpopulation sparked by ‘baby busts’ is a pet topic of Elon Musk. In 2017, the eccentric Tesla billionaire said Earth’s population was ‘accelerating towards collapse but few seem to notice or care’.
Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee, of the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, said the trends will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power.
She said: ‘The implications are immense.
‘These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies.
‘Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues.’
She added: ‘There’s no silver bullet.
‘Social policies to improve birth rates such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, financial incentives, and extra employment rights, may provide a small boost to fertility rates.
‘But most countries will remain below replacement levels.
‘And once nearly every country’s population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth.
‘Sub-Saharan African countries have a vital resource that ageing societies are losing — a youthful population.’
Responding to its findings, Professor Melinda Mills, a demographist at the University of Oxford said: ‘Shrinking and aging populations demand preparedness and reorganisation of societies.
‘From impacted food security and migration patterns to the very infrastructures of countries.
‘Population composition affects infrastructure such as schools, housing, transport, housing and health care and pensions but also cultural and voting changes.’
The UK’s fertility rate freefall was momentarily hit by a blip during 2021.
However, this was put down to a mini baby ‘bounce’ by couples who put their family plans on hold at the start of the Covid pandemic.
Experts believe the fall is partly down to women focusing on their education and careers and couples waiting to have children until later in life.
The UK’s fragile economy and cost-of-living crisis is also putting people off having children, some believe, evidenced by abortion rates simultaneously spiking.
Professor Mills told MailOnline: ‘The known barriers to having children and the reasons behind shrinking fertility include the inability to combine employment with family, lack of affordable childcare, housing costs and obtaining a mortgage and importantly, economic uncertainty, such as certainty about employment and expenses.
‘The past era of economic uncertainty and challenges couples face has undoubtedly inhibited their ability to realise their fertility intentions.’
Tower Hamlets, Hackney, Lambeth and Brighton, which all saw significant drops in fertility rates according to ONS data, also share one common link, she added.
‘They include neighbourhoods with some of the highest levels of multiple deprivation, which is an index used to measure income, employment, education, health, crime, barriers to housing and services,’ she said.
Meanwhile, gerontologist Professor Sarah Harper of Oxford University told MailOnline: ‘Most initiatives in other countries, especially financial, to persuade women to have more children, have actually resulted in a temporary increase, followed by a slump — which makes planning for schools and pediatric services for example, problematic.
‘The issues are around gender equality, respect for women’s choices, increasing the status of women.’
A spokesperson for the British Pregnancy Advisory Service also said: ‘Enabling measures such as increased availability of funded childcare may enable some women to make different choices, but it will never force women to make a decision they don’t wish to.’
Others cite the environment, with people fearing that they will worsen their carbon footprint by having a child or that their child will have a bleak future due to climate change.
There is no evidence that Covid vaccines are to blame, with scientists insisting there is no proof they harm fertility.
In the UK, Tory MP Miriam Cates has long led calls for pro-natal policies to improve the birthrate, including tax breaks for stay-at-home mothers.
In a speech at National Conservatism Conference last year, she told delegates: ‘Fertility rates decline has not occurred in spite of the economic and social policies of the last thirty years.
‘It is a direct result of how those policies have failed to value and reward the behaviours that lead to starting a family.’
She added: ‘Having children is about as much of a “lifestyle choice” as eating — it is fundamental for survival.’
The threat of underpopulation has also been a pet topic of eccentric billionaire Elon Musk, who has preached about it for years.
In 2017, he said that the number of people on Earth is ‘accelerating towards collapse but few seem to notice or care’.
Then in 2021 Musk, who has 11 known children, warned that civilisation is ‘going to crumble’ if people don’t have more children.
At Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s ‘Atreju’ political festival in Rome in December, Musk also urged Italians to have more children to ‘save Italy’s culture’.
Later, he added: ‘My advice to all government leaders and people is make sure you have children to create a new generation or the culture of Italy, Japan and France will disappear.’
He said: ‘We are in danger of no longer having these countries.’
Sarah Carter is a health and wellness expert residing in the UK. With a background in healthcare, she offers evidence-based advice on fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being, promoting healthier living for readers.
