No refuge for Rishi on Rwanda – POLITICO

Good afternoon.

THURSDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Conservative MPs are piling pressure on Rishi Sunak over his new Rwanda plan less than 24 hours after he announced it.

— There are still numerous hurdles for the government to jump over to get planes off the ground.

— Scoop: A treaties expert said there will be no power to enforce a new deal between the U.K. and Rwanda even if Sunak claims it’s legally binding.

— Labour Leader Keir Starmer doubled down on his Gaza position as MPs seethed following a bruising Commons showdown.

— David Cameron made his first foreign trip since re-joining the Cabinet … to Ukraine, obvs.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

ALWAYS WANTING MORE: Rishi Sunak is under pressure from Conservative MPs to go in hard on his new plan to get the Rwanda deportation deal off the ground — including via action against perceived international blockers.  

Petition time: Dozens of MPs have signed a letter to the PM urging him to make the promised emergency law to declare Rwanda a safe nation to deport illegal migrants to as tough as possible. ITV’s Anushka Asthana got the scoop, and Playbook PM can confirm she’s correct. 

Don’t forget: The Supreme Court said there was a real risk asylum seekers sent to Rwanda could end up deported back to their home countries where their lives are under threat.  

But but but: The hope among MPs for the legislation is to cut off all British court routes that could see last minute challenges to planes taking off and to add clauses to ensure being a signatory of the European Convention on Human Rights is not a blocker, one MP told Playbook PM. 

Plan as it stands: The current expectation is that a proper bill (primary legislation rather than secondary) will be introduced after Autumn Statement next week to overrule the courts and declare Rwanda a safe nation to deport small boats arrivals to under a new deal with the African nation which could be published as soon as next week. 

Promises, promises: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said ministers were “absolutely determined” to get a flight off the ground before the next election. A spokesperson for Rishi Sunak added: “We want to do it as quickly as possible.” 

But but but: There are lots and lots and lots of problems, which make fulfilling those pledges tough.  

One problem: The legislation has a good chance of getting snarled up the Lords, seeing as the Tories didn’t put “overriding the Supreme Court” in their manifesto. 

Making that difficult: There’s not a lot of time in the current session of parliament. The bill needs to get to the Lords no later than November 17 2024 to make it onto the statute book, procedural expert Graeme Cowie tweeted, so it needs to get its initial second reading in the Commons no later than November 17 2023. 

One of the big rows … will be the constitutional implosion at overruling the Supreme Court. Cleverly dismissed concerns from top legal eagle Jonathan Sumption about the government formulating its own interpretation of the facts via law, arguing on Radio 4’s Today: “Lawyers argue all the time, that’s literally what they do. I have very eminent lawyers who take a different view.” 

And bear in mind: The Downing Street argument is that the facts have altered since the Supreme Court case started, with changes on the ground in Rwanda plus this new deal the government plans to present.  

Another problem: There can’t be much assurance Rwanda keeps to the deal and doesn’t end up deporting possible refugees to their unsafe home nations. Downing Street insists the new deal with Rwanda will be legally binding, but there’s no authority to enforce such an arrangement. “The only entity that could hold Rwanda to account would be the U.K.” Holger Hestermeyer, an expert in international treaties told Playbook PM.  

And there’s more: He added that the U.K. “would not want to hold Rwanda to account” because that would be an acceptance that its deal can’t work.  

Another problem: It’s still not clear Rwanda can handle the number of cases the U.K. wants to send, and under its latest stats Rwanda has rejected all asylum cases from places like Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria, which suggests something isn’t quite right. 

Although … Cleverly argued the government has over the past year been “working with the Rwandans to beef up, to strengthen, to professionalize and enhance their professional institutions.” 

Another problem: Numerous MPs reckon the PM’s plan won’t work from the outset and he needs to go straight for the jugular to cut off challenges from the ECHR, other international treaties and via other domestic legislation. Those around former Home Secretary Suella Braverman argue the new plan will still get stuck in the courts and that rather than hint at tackling the international blockers at the end, the PM should address those first.  

However, however, however: It doesn’t look like that’s gonna happen. Cleverly said this morning he didn’t think pulling Britain out of the ECHR will be necessary. “I believe that we can act in accordance with international law and we are very determined to do that.” He didn’t deny having branded the Rwanda plan “batshit” in the past.

Oh, and there’s the little issue of … David Cameron, according to his old pal George Osborne. The latter told his Political Currency podcast with Ed Balls that quitting the ECHR would be “off the table” while Cameron is in government because the ex-PM is unlikely to “go along with something as extreme as that.” 

Indeed: It feels there’s little appetite in the government for quitting the ECHR. Sunak’s spokesman noted that other routes to the one the PM has set out could take longer and have other consequences. There are, of course, warnings that messing with the ECHR would pose problems for the Good Friday Agreement.  

Agreeing it could take ages: Liberty’s policy and campaigns officer Charlie Whelton told POLITICO it would be impossible for the U.K. to just leave the ECHR. It would be a lengthy battle that would have to be in the next Conservative manifesto. Something to look forward to! (Not.) 

LABOUR LAND

DOUBLING DOWN: Labour Leader Keir Starmer risks winding his MPs up further after insisting his focus is not on hearing their pleas about the wording of his position on Gaza.

More important than Labour management: In an interview with ITV News during a trip to Scotland, Starmer said: “When you’ve got hostages being held at gunpoint, when you’ve got children dying in Gaza, my focus is on them not on the various different voices in the Labour party, because that is where the real concern is.”

But but but: Many of his troops are still seething about the Commons divisions last night that saw 10 frontbenchers quit their posts and dozens more MPs vote against the whip. Starmer ordered his MPs to back a Labour amendment to the King’s Speech calling for “pauses” in the Israeli bombing of Gaza, but lots of them want him to back a full ceasefire.

The arguments: Starmer had been telling rebels he needed to prove he wouldn’t be a pushover on the world stage if Labour wins the election in 2024, but numerous MPs reckon no one will remember a vote with no real consequence once the election comes, and that he missed the chance to take a moral position.

Showdown please: “Keir used a lot of his credit with the PLP and he needs to get some seasoned politicians in the room when he’s making big decisions,” one senior Labour MP told Playbook PM. “Because last night was a debacle.” There are calls for Starmer to attend the next PLP meeting on Monday evening so his troops can vent their spleens, but Rachel Reeves is down to address it ahead of the Autumn Statement and there are no plans for that to change.

Nevertheless: “This is an issue about a terrible terrorist attack on October 7, the worst terrorist attack on Israel in its history, and a humanitarian crisis that’s been ongoing in Gaza,” Starmer told ITV. “I think there’s an absolute unity, actually, not just in the Labour party, I think across the country and across the world, that we must make sure that we do something to alleviate the situation on the ground.”

No protest here: Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey chimed in to tell Times Radio Labour is “not a protest party. What we are doing and saying now is how we would act in government.”

The lunching hour: Shadow Development Secretary Lisa Nandy told a posh lunch for journos in parliament she was sad to see colleagues resign last night but “can’t apologize” for the party’s position on Israel and Gaza.

The quotes: “Many people in Israel — including the Israeli government — when they hear the term ceasefire, hear simply an instruction that they should lay down their arms and just allow that situation to continue,” she said. She was downbeat about the prospect of a ceasefire in the near future, saying: “A ceasefire, I have to say having been in the region, seems like a very, very distant prospect.”

However: Nandy declined to back Israel’s military objective to destroy Hamas. “We have reservations about whether you can militarily destroy Hamas — Hamas is an ideology as much as it is a terrorist organisation … I think it’s important to recognise that in the end, there isn’t a military solution to this conflict.”

The fun bits: Nandy joked that this week she learned Cabinet reshuffles are “more fun when you’re not in them” … revealed that Gordon Brown has been giving her advice on her brief “with his middle of the night emails in capital letters, all in the subject line” and said that if she had been told a week ago that David Cameron would make a return to politics she would have said “yeah, and pigs might fly.” (“Sorry” — she added — “people are eating.”)

On the menu: Sweet potato, ginger and spring onion soup for starters … pan fried (are there other ways to fry?) fillet of sea bass with wild mushrooms, parsnip, dill rosti and green beans as a main … then coffee and petit fours.

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DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

DAVE ON TOUR: New Foreign Secretary David Cameron paid tribute to/trolled (delete as appropriate) his lifelong frenemy Boris Johnson after he popped up in Ukraine for his first diplomatic visit. “I had some disagreements with Boris Johnson, he was my friend for 40 years, but his support for you was the finest thing that he introduced,” Cameron told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Cameron later went on to Odessa, the first British minister to do so since the Russian invasion. Pics from the government Flickr account here.

Bear in mind: Cameron and Johnson were at the same school at the same time (albeit in different years) and have long had a light hearted rivalry that went a bit less light hearted when Johnson supported Brexit and lost Cameron the 2016 referendum. Playbook PM wondered if Johnson, no longer even an MP, would be smarting at seeing his old rival leading the charge in Ukraine following his return to government. But his biographer Andrew Gimson disagreed. “I think Boris will be delighted that Dave, by going to Kiev first, has shown that Britain is still deeply committed to Ukrainian independence and freedom,” he said.

Speaking of Cameron: House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt suggested Cameron could face regular questions from MPs in Westminster Hall in a bid to hold him to account via the green benches, after Labour complained that probing Development Minister Andrew Mitchell in his place isn’t good enough. “The government’s proposal that the minister for development would stand in is entirely insufficient,” Shadow Commons Leader Lucy Powell said during the business statement this morning. “The last time the House was in this situation, Conservative members were furious.” She noted precedent for the Westminster Hall idea.

Door left open: Mordaunt said the procedure committee “will be consulted on the best way forward” and Cameron “will want to be accountable to this House,” while noting the suggestions from Powell.

Bear in mind: One peer made the case to Playbook PM that Cameron could get a rougher ride in the Lords than in the Commons, at what is expected to be a monthly question session for the new foreign secretary. The thinking is that there are more actual foreign policy experts, including former spooks and military bosses, in the upper chamber, while in the Commons there’s lots more political knockabout than deep expertise.

Oh, and: Peers are having fun guessing which bit of the nation Cameron will end up being titled as a baron for. The problem is numerous grand mansion piles in the Cotswolds are already accounted for.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT: The government could tweak the law to take tougher action on protesters clambering about on war memorials, Home Secretary James Cleverly declared. He told LBC Radio he was looking “in real detail” at the prospect of more powers for the police to tackle “deeply distasteful, provocative things like that.” Vid of the action from protesting numpties last night here.

Going one step further: Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer said in a statement: “Let’s see these thugs dishonoring our war dead in handcuffs.”

SPEAKER SPOKEN TO: Commons Deputy Speaker Eleanor Laing is under investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards about “actions causing significant damage to the reputation of the House as a whole, or of its members generally.” Conservative MP Virginia Crosbie is also being probed. The assumption in Westminster is that it relates to these allegations.

BIG CONGRATS: Labour MP Julie Elliott came top of the ballot for private members’ bills, with Labour’s Chris Elmore in second place and Conservative Laurence Robertson third. One Liz Truss also squeaked in, at number 18 on the list. The full rundown is here, and obsessives can rewatch the full drama of the ballot process here.

What it means: The Commons will sit on Fridays on 13 occasions during the course of the current parliamentary session, during which time MPs will rush to get their bills through. Those that don’t win the support of the government (i.e. those that aren’t cooked up in advance with government backing) are unlikely to get far along the track.

COMING ATTRACTIONS: It’s a firecracker of a lineup next week at the COVID-19 probe, with full day hearings for former Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance Monday and former Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty Tuesday. Through the rest of the week there are appearances from former Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Jonathan Van-Tam, current Chief Scientific Adviser Angela McLean, former Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Jenny Harries and Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch. Full details here .

PEDI LESSONS: Someone had to explain to King Charles what a pedicab when he first read the King’s Speech, according to the latest Private Eye (out yesterday but things were a bit busy in Westminster so Playbook PM only got around to reading the mag this morning.) He also questioned whether the pedal powered carriages should be described as a “scourge” considering all the other ills going on in the world. Clearly he’s not wandered around Soho at night much.

More where that came from: The Eye adds that Downing Street is keeping close tabs on what the king plans to say and do when he appears at COP28 in Dubai, after reluctantly confirming he will attend the climate summit.

KIDS STOLE THE IPAD: Under fire Scottish Health Secretary Michael Matheson has blamed an £11,000 data roaming charge from a Morocco holiday on his kids watching football without his knowledge. The minister — who has been under pressure over the big bill he racked up, and paid back, on his parliamentary iPad — apologized for the costs and got emotional as he said he had been trying to protect his family from the political cut and thrust.

But but but: Questions remain for the SNP minister, particularly over why he didn’t mention this in his statement last week or why he told journalists on Monday there had been no personal use of his office iPad. The minister has referred himself to Holyrood’s corporate body.

SENTENCING NEWS: Two people who admitted to racially abusing Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf — and shouting abuse at other politicians — have been handed community payback and restriction of liberty orders … A protester who “stalked” the Tory MP Gavin Williamson has been handed a restraining order … no news yet on the fate of David Perry, who is still set to be sentenced for sending an offensive and indecent email to Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride launched a carrot and stick plan to get more people into work, boosting mental health and other support schemes alongside tougher sanctions for people who don’t look for employment.

More talking points: The business department meanwhile launched a consultation on letting short term workers cover strike action over Christmas.

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AROUND THE WORLD

IN SPAIN: Europe’s ultimate survivor Pedro Sánchez will serve another term as Spanish prime minister, after the socialist leader won parliament’s backing. He’ll form a minority administration with the leftist Sumar coalition and is expected to be sworn in by Spain’s King Filipe on Friday. More from my colleague Aitor Hernández-Morales here.

UKRAINE NEWS: The EU will miss a promised deadline for delivering a million artillery shells to Ukraine by March, the chief of the key European Defense Agency admitted in an interview with POLITICO. The bloc is divided over the wisdom of the target — as POLITICO’s Joshua Posaner sketches out here.

ISRAEL/GAZA LATEST: “Soldiers are everywhere, shooting in all directions” in Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital, according to a witness who spoke to the BBC. The IDF entered the hospital — Gaza’s largest — Wednesday, having claimed Hamas has a major base underneath it. Israel said its special forces are carrying out “precise and targeted operational activity” there.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on Tory and Labour troubles … BBC News at Six and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) lead on the latest from Israel/Gaza.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Rail Delivery Group’s Josh Coe and former RMT official Steve Hedley.

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Lib Dem MP Layla Moran … WHO’s Margaret Harris … Former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Doughty Street Chambers’ Geoffrey Robertson … Former Labour adviser John McTernan … Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo … Journos Rachel Sylvester and Anne McElvoy.

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride … EHRC Chair Kishwer Falkner … Children’s Commissioner Rachel de Souza.

The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Labour MP Jess Phillips.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Mel Stride … Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson … Journos Pippa Crerar and Tom McTague.

Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Mel Stride … Labour MP Dawn Butler … Former Tory SpAd James Starkie.

(Not) Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Reform Leader Richard Tice stands in for the jungle-dwelling Nigel Farage. Former Tory SpAd Rory Geoghegan, former Chair of the Conservative Muslim Forum Mohammed Amin … Centre for Brexit Policy’s Catherine McBride.

Question Time (BBC iPlayer 8 p.m. and BBC One, 10.40 p.m.): Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg … Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson … Times columnist Juliet Samuel … The IFS’ Paul Johnson …. Oxfam U.K. CEO Danny Sriskandarajah.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): PolHome’s Nadine Batchelor-Hunt and pollster Joe Twyman.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

BRANDIES WITH BRANDON: The Adam Smith Institute hosts Tory MP Brandon Lewis in conversation with former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney from 5.30 p.m.

CHEERS TO COUNCILLORS! The Local Government Information Unit and CCLA’s Councilor Awards for England and Wales kick off at the Guildhall from 7 p.m.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

IN THE COMMONS AND LORDS: Nope.

LEVELING WITH THE PUBLIC: The National Audit Office has a report out overnight about leveling up funding.

HIGHLAND DANCE: Labour Leader Keir Starmer is expected to visit north east Scotland.

WHILE HE’S THERE: The Scottish government will release its latest paper on life after Scottish independence — this one about rejoining the EU.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Transport Secretary Mark Harper is expected to make an announcement about road repairs.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PARL LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: The Debate: Chicken and chorizo burger with coleslaw; smoked haddock kedgeree with poached egg; black bean, sweet potato and squash chili taco … Terrace Cafeteria: Fish and chips; Cumberland sausage ring with mash and gravy; chickpea and vegetable curry with trimmings … River Restaurant: Fish and chips with trimmings.

NOW HIRING: The Home Office is hiring a visits and events manager for its ministerial team, for up to £41,035. Deets here.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On November 16 1756 William Cavendish, stage name 5th Duke of Devonshire, became prime minister.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Eleni Courea.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Andrew McDonald and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

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