My 10 Predictions for the General Election

Perhaps my enjoyment of this election campaign has been coloured by my dalliance with becoming a candidate at the start of it, but can anyone truly say they’ve enjoyed it, whether they’ve been a participant or an observer. The only “moments” of the campaign are when someone has committed a so-called gaffe, which the media then obsess about for the following days, to the exclusion of virtually everything else. The head to head or multi-party policy debates have passed with little incident and for the most part have bored the audiences to tears. There has been little discussion of several important policy areas, including defence and foreign policy, subjects which were only discussed yesterday because it was Armed Forces Day.

Labour’s ‘ming vase’ strategy has lasted the course, while the Conservatives only minor success was to turn the debate onto tax for a week, a subject on which Keir Starmer appeared slightly uncomfortable. I think we all know why.

Beth Rigby conducted the best interview of the campaign where she really went for Keir Starmer over his support for Jeremy Corbyn. Other than that, I can’t think of a single interview which has resulted in a genuine big story or revelation.

So what can we look forward to on election night? Well, if these MRP polls are right, the Tories are heading for a devastating night and could score only around 100 seats. That would leave Labour with a majority of 250. That would entail more than half the Cabinet losing their seats. Who will provide the Portillo moment? There may be several of them.

My prediction is this: that Reform UK will play the most crucial role in deciding the size of the Labour majority. They haven’t had a good week, but that doesn’t mean to say they won’t have a good last few days. Every one per cent they climb in the polls will lead to a clutch of Tory seats being held on to or lost. Beyond predicting a Labour majority, I don’t think anyone can be confident of making an actual firm prediction, but I’ll put my neck on the line. Let’s see how many other commentators are willing to do the same. Here are 10 predictions…

1. I think the Labour majority will be between 60 and 100.
2. The Conservatives will get 130-150 seats
3. The Liberal Democrats will get 40-60 seats
4. The Greens will win 2 or 3, probably Brighton and Bristol Central, with Waveney Valley as an outsider.
5. The SNP will win fewer than 25 seats, thereby losing their supposed mandate for independence talks to start.
6. Nigel Farage will win Clacton.
7. Turnout will be between 61 and 63%
8. Rishi Sunak will resign on Friday and refuse to stay on until a new leader is elected, leaving the party with a total headache, as no one would stomach Oliver Dowden as a temporary leader. I doubt whether he would either.
9. One of the biggest post-election talking points will be about the validity of MRP polls, which I think will have had a major impact on voting intention and turnout.
10. Keir Starmer will make more changes to his team than people think. Including one big surprise.

Like most of you, I will be watching proceedings on election night from my couch at home. LBC’s election night coverage will be fronted by Shelagh Fogarty and Andrew Marr, with Natasha Clark, Lewis Goodall and Jon Sopel providing the commentary. I’ve presented four election night shows and this will be the first time I will have watched from home since 2001. As I explained in the last newsletter, when I had my Tunbridge Wells dalliance, they made other plans for election night, and I make absolutely no complaint about that. But I will be back on air on Friday at 7pm to trawl through the triumph and the carnage. Do tune in!

And above all, don’t forget to vote!

UPDATE: This is what I have sent out to my Sunday newsletter readers. One of them has pointed out that the maths don’t quite work, and using these figures Labour would get a majority in excess of 130. Maths was never my strong point. But I’ll leave it as it is!