Iran has told the US via intermediaries that if it strikes Iranian soil directly, Tehran will itself hit back at American assets in the Middle East, drawing the two sides into a direct conflict.
The warning comes as Iran waits on high alert to see how Joe Biden responds to the death of three US servicemen deemed by Washington to have been killed by a Tehran-backed militia based in Syria.
US bases in Syria and Iraq have suffered more than 160 attacks of varying seriousness since Hamas’s 7 October assault on Israel.
Amid fears of a US reprisal, the Iranian rial fell to its lowest point in 40 years against the dollar, even as Tehran reiterated that the strike was the work of independent “resistance groups” – Iran’s standard response to US accusations that itproliferates military turmoil across the region by arming and training the groups. Hamas is designated a terrorist group by the US and the EU.
The value of Iran’s national currency has fallen by 15% since 7 October. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called for tighter controls on liquidity at a meeting with business leaders, reflecting his concern that inflation was crushing living standards, and creating a difficult atmosphere in advance of nationwide parliamentary elections in November. Inflation is running at 40%.
Now, Iranian media is openly speculating on the nature of possible reprisals – largely basing their discussions on US media reports. Both sides have emphasised they are not seeking an open war, but Tehran considers that a US attack on its territory is a red line that will be met with an appropriate response.
As tensions rose, the Iranian foreign ministry summoned the British ambassador, Simon Shercliff, on Tuesday to demand the UK ends its allegations that Iran is attempting to intimidate Iranian dissidents living in Britain.
The Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, struck a confident note that events across the region were still trending in Iran’s direction. He said the White House knew well that “a political solution” was required to end the carnage in the besieged Gaza Strip and the current crisis in the Middle East.
He said: “Diplomacy is moving forward on this path. Benjamin Netanyahu is nearing the end of his criminal political life.”
With a US attack on Iranian positions inside Syria seen as the most likely option, Iran’s deputy interior minister, Seyyed Majid Mirahmadi, in a meeting with his Syrian counterparts discussed the crisis and insisted the so-called “axis of resistance” was on the verge of victory.
Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister, said he believed Israel’s “aura of invincibility” had cracked. In an interview he claimed: “The foreign policy of the Israeli regime is based on two axes: oppression and invincibility.”
Zarif said Israel’s war policy had three pillars: the war must be outside Israel, it must be surprising, and it must end quickly. He said that both Israel’s two foreign policy axes and its three military policy pillars had been broken by the 7 October attack.
But Iran itself faces its own challenges: unrest has broken out across Kurdistan after the execution on Monday of four Kurds accused by the regime of co-operating with Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agencies.
Images circulating online show deserted streets and shuttered shops in Sanandaj, Saqqez, Mahabad, Bukan, Dehgolan and other cities.
The four men, all members of the leftwing Komala party, were executed for allegedly plotting a bombing in Isfahan last summer in collaboration with Israel.
Mehdi Saadati, a member of the parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, said: “These executions are a lesson for anyone who wants to stand against the will of the Iranian nation because the Iranian nation will punish them for their deeds.”
But it remains unclear if the latest repression is linked to a nervousness in Iran at the degree of support for the regime’s interventionist foreign policy.
Although support for Palestinians is widespread through Iranian society, the regime is worried that the state of the economy and general political disaffection could drive down turnout at parliamentary elections in March, undercutting its claim to legitimacy.
In an attempt to boost participation in the vote, the number of ballot boxes has doubled, and candidates are being given additional time on TV and radio to try to generate an atmosphere of excitement. There is no “postal voting” but numerous mobile stations are to be deployed.
Turnout in the 2020 parliamentary elections was recorded as below 42.5%, with voting in the capital, Tehran, dropping to 26.2% – the lowest figures since the 1979 revolution. Something similar is expected this time round. But if turnout falls below 40%, it would be a blow to the regime’s prestige, and confirm the revolution is surviving off a mixture of repression and alienation.
Emily Foster is a globe-trotting journalist based in the UK. Her articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing a nuanced view of the world’s most pressing challenges.
