Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders has won the most votes in parliamentary elections dominated by debate around rising immigration in the Netherlands.
Based on 98 per cent of votes counted, Wilders’ Freedom party was projected to win 37 seats, doubling its total after Wednesday’s vote, according to projections by press agency ANP.
Wilders said he would seek to form a government, adding that he would curb an “asylum tsunami” and ensure “the Dutch get their country back”.
Wilders’ party was followed by a leftwing alliance led by the EU’s former climate chief Frans Timmermans with 25 seats, and then the Liberal VVD with 23.
His victory will send shockwaves through the EU, which has been struggling to absorb migrants from Africa and Asia.
Wilders also wants a referendum on leaving the EU. But the far-right politician, an anti-Islam campaigner who has vowed to ban the Koran and mosques, may struggle to find coalition partners to form a government that can amass a majority in the 150-seat lower house of parliament.
Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, leader of the VVD, said she did not think she would serve in a Wilders cabinet. “I said that I don’t see that happening because Wilders cannot form a majority,” she said.
Centre-right newcomer Pieter Omtzigt, a former Christian Democrat who formed his New Social Contract party only in August, has ruled out serving in a cabinet with Wilders. NSC is forecast to win 20 seats.
“We can’t be ignored,” Wilders said, calling on parties to “find agreement”.
Some 26 parties contested elections, and a poll by broadcaster NPO found that 16 would enter parliament. Analysts said whoever wins will require at least three other parties to govern — a prospect that could mean talks to form a government last for months, with Prime Minister Mark Rutte staying in a caretaker capacity.
His ruling coalition collapsed in July over plans to try to limit immigration by making it harder for asylum seekers to be joined by family members.
The election campaign was dominated by migration, a housing crisis squeezing out young people and lower-income families, and environmental restrictions on farming in the densely packed country of 18mn.
Yeşilgöz-Zegerius said the country could not cope with the volume of arrivals. Net migration hit more than 220,000 in 2022, a tenfold increase in 20 years.
Omtzigt has suggested cutting annual numbers to 50,000, including those from the EU who have a right to work anywhere in the bloc. Wilders takes an even tougher line but has dropped his anti-Islam rhetoric in recent days.
Wilders still lives in a safe house and is guarded round the clock because of death threats.
A late surge of support for Wilders prompted a similar rise for Timmermans as leftwing voters turned out to try to thwart a rightwing government. The former EU commissioner leads a combined Labour and Green party, which increased its presence by nine seats, according to the poll.
However, Timmermans would also find it hard to form a government, as his closest ally, the progressive, liberal D66 group, is set to win nine seats.
The Dutch system has no minimum threshold to enter parliament, so there is a rich array of factions, from the Party for the Animals to Denk, representing immigrants.
Read more on the Dutch election
Emily Foster is a globe-trotting journalist based in the UK. Her articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing a nuanced view of the world’s most pressing challenges.
