Big-race preview ahead of Flemington showpiece

It’s Australia’s greatest race and at 3pm local time on Tuesday, the nation will come to a halt to watch the Melbourne Cup. Whether you’re a diehard racing fan or a once-a-year punter, Cup Day is the day where the people across the nation take an interest in racing and try to back a winner or get involved in a Melbourne Cup sweep.

While all eyes will be on Flemington, it’s just one of thirty-two race meetings nationwide that are scheduled for Tuesday on what is a public holiday in the city of Melbourne and a de-facto holiday in the rest of the country.

As well as its sporting and cultural significance in Australia, the Cup has expanded its reach internationally over the last 30 years and this year, the likes of Willie Mullins, Ryan Moore, Hollie Doyle, Joao Moreira, Zac Purton, Joseph O’Brien and Kohei Matsuyama will all be trying to take the Cup home with them.

The Melbourne Cup is the climax of the weeks long Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival and while the build-up has been superb -Without A Fight prevailing in a thrilling finish in the Caulfield Cup and Romantic Warrior giving Hong Kong a historic Cox Plate triumph, there’s something magical about Flemington on the first Tuesday in November that sets it apart from the other major meetings in Australia.

Wizard Willie poised to claim first Cup

It’s hard to remember another international runner that’s dominated the pre-race discussion ahead of the Melbourne Cup quite like Vauban has this year. He’s been the favourite for the race ever since his dominant win at Royal Ascot in June and has impressed the trackwork spies at the quarantine centre at Werribee and in his track gallop at Flemington last Tuesday. Both trainer Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci are in town for the race, with Mullins telling the press at Flemington on Saturday night that this year presents him with his strongest chance of winning the Melbourne Cup, after he came agonisingly close eight years ago when Max Dynamite finished second to Prince Of Penzance.

Mullins has booked Ryan Moore for the ride on Vauban, with Britain’s best jockey out to claim his second Melbourne Cup victory.

Despite the constant talk of Vauban, Mullins did remind the media not to forget about the Ebor Handicap winner Absurde, who he feels has improved since finishing second to Vauban at Ascot. Absurde gets in well at the weights with 53kg and star Hong Kong based Aussie jockey Zac Purton will fly in for the ride. Purton has achieved everything there is to achieve in Hong Kong racing, but a highly coveted Melbourne Cup success would undoubtedly be a career highlight for him.

The genuine farewell tour

While Frankie Dettori’s farewell tour may have had an abrupt U-turn, there’s no doubt about the intentions of Damien Oliver as he prepares to ride in his final Melbourne Cup before hanging up his saddle in his native Western Australia in December. Oliver has won the Cup three times and provided the race with one of its most emotional moments ever when he won it in 2002 on Media Puzzle, just days after his brother Jason, a fellow jockey, had died in a tragic accident at the barrier trials in Perth.

This year, Oliver will ride Alenquer, who was trained by William Haggas to win last year’s Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh and is now prepared by Mike Moroney in Melbourne. Alenquer is yet to reproduce his European form Down Under but there’s no doubting Oliver’s form after his double at Flemington on Derby Day and it would be a fairytale if he can bring up a record equalling fourth Cup at his last ride in it.

Back-to-back for Gold Trip?

As a handicap race run over a gruelling two miles that features top stayers from around the world, winning consecutive Melbourne Cups is an incredibly rare feat. Since Makybe Diva’s historic third win in the Cup in 2005, the likes of Shocking, Americain, Dunaden, Cross Counter, Vow And Declare and Twilight Payment have all returned to Flemington after winning the great race the year before, and none of the were even able to figure in the placings at their second attempt.

Yet there’s something eerily similar about Gold Trip’s path to the Cup that saw him win it last year, a brave effort in the Caulfield Cup before an eye-catching run in the Cox Plate. He relished the step up to 3200m at Flemington last year and his trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace (a British expat) have been confident of his Cup hopes throughout the spring. A win on Tuesday would see him become the sixth horse to win multiple Melbourne Cups in the history of the race, which dates to 1861.

Analysis

Ultimately, it looks like it’s Vauban’s Melbourne Cup to lose. This has been the long-range plan for Willie Mullins, his win at Ascot was awesome, he’s handled the trip to Melbourne well and has impressed in his trackwork.

From barrier three, Ryan Moore can position him wherever he wishes, and he should be moving into the race ominously before the home turn. Gold Trip is the pick of the locally trained runners, but it won’t be easy for him with the topweight and a firmer track to contend with this year. Absurde is well weighted, he has solid form and is drawn to get the right run from barrier eight. Former British galloper Soulcombe has performed well throughout the spring and will have no problems staying the trip, but he does have a bad habit of missing the start.

Another former Brit, Without A Fight, has been in great form since relocating to Australia and did win the Caulfield Cup last time, but there are doubts about his stamina over this trip. Japanese challenger Breakup should improve from his run in the Caulfield Cup and his fourth in the G1 Tenno Sho (Spring) reads well for this. 2019 Cup winner Vow And Declare looks to have recaptured his best form and could be one at odds to look out for.

Prediction:

5. Vauban

1. Gold Trip

7. Absurde

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