Thanks to its nationwide-lead, the RN leads the race in most cases. If candidates who came third in these districts withdraw from the election, it potentially works against National Rally (RN), as voters who oppose the far right are likely to band together to back the sole remaining rival candidate.
But the process is still highly uncertain. That’s why seat projections for the RN after the first round vary widely, from 230 seats to 310. Some 289 seats are needed to secure an absolute majority in the assembly.
Will Macron swallow his pride?
“In such circumstances, France deserves that we not hesitate,” Macron’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on Sunday evening, calling on third-place finishers to bow out of the race when their candidacy in the runoff could “have the National Rally elected.”
But not everyone in the presidential camp is ready to bow out… During the three-week legislative campaign, centrist operatives argued that the left-wing bloc, called the New Popular Front, was under the control of the hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his France Unbowed (LFI) movement. All political “extremes,” they said, should be fought equally.
Before the first round of voting, Macron himself went as far as likening his leftist opponents to the far right, claiming their success would lead to a “civil war.”
The clock is ticking
A 48-hour window could determine the outcome of the vote next Sunday. Candidates who have qualified for the second round have until Tuesday evening at 6 p.m. CET to register their candidacies.
Emily Foster is a globe-trotting journalist based in the UK. Her articles offer readers a global perspective on international events, exploring complex geopolitical issues and providing a nuanced view of the world’s most pressing challenges.
