Early South African election results put ANC on course to lose majority

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The African National Congress appeared on course to lose its outright majority for the first time since the start of multi-party elections in 1994 that followed the end of apartheid.

With 11.3 per cent of the national vote counted the ANC was on 42.8 per cent — worse than many polls had predicted, although analysts cautioned that this could increase. The main opposition Democratic Alliance was doing better than expected with 25.5 per cent, and Julius Malema’s radical Economic Freedom Fighters was on 8.2 per cent.

A model of predicted outcomes, developed by South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, put the ANC’s likely share of the final vote at 42 per cent and the DA at 22.27 per cent, based on its projected turnout of 57 per cent. Pravesh Debba, its project leader, said there was a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

The result would mark a sharp drop for the ANC, which won 57.5 per cent in the 2019 election when President Cyril Ramaphosa campaigned on a promise to eradicate widespread corruption and reform the governing party. Yet under his tenure, electricity blackouts became chronic, while unemployment soared to about a third of the working age population. The economy grew on average at below 1 per cent a year.

The outcome appeared to have been swayed by a plethora of new parties taking votes from the ANC. Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonte we Sizwe, a radical party formed only six months ago, appeared to have done well in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, potentially dealing the ANC a heavy defeat in the country’s second-most populous province.

Political analysts warned that the tally could change and that the ANC vote tended to rally as the count went on because results from its strongholds in rural areas and some townships took longer to count.

Ebrahim Fakir, a political analyst with the Johannesburg-based Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy, warned that while it was premature to read too much into early results, the elections did mark a watershed.

“The one thing we can say at least is that the era of substantive uncertainty is definitely here,” he said of a political system that appeared to be fragmenting as South Africa entered a new age of coalition politics.

This was evidenced by the more than 50 parties on the national ballot as well as almost a dozen independent candidates who were allowed to stand for the first time.

But Fakir also cautioned that, as South Africa entered a new phase of politics, there was a danger that its institutions would be found wanting.

The new electoral system, which necessitates three separate ballots, had only been finalised a year ago, he said, giving the electoral commission insufficient time to prepare. Voters complained of long lines on Wednesday, with some waiting at polling stations until late into the night to vote.

Analysts said that if the ANC tally dropped substantially below the 45 per cent mark, it might find it challenging to form a coalition with small parties. This could mean it needs to seek support from the EFF or Zuma’s MK — an outcome some investors have dubbed the “doomsday scenario”.

But they said a more likely outcome was that the ANC would seek to cobble together a coalition with the smaller parties less able to demand big policy shifts in return for their support.