Covid cases are rising across UK with the latest wave already close to hitting its peak after Christmas gatherings, a leading virus modeller predicts.
Infection rates have shot up in recent weeks, doubling to an estimated 2.5 million people in the first half of December, when about 4.3 per cent of the population was infected, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Since then, Covid cases are expected to have risen sharply as JN.1, the new highly-contagious dominant subvariant, spreads rapidly – increasing its share of new UK infections to 48 per cent on December 23rd, making it the biggest strain in the country.
In the aftermath of Christmas, where people have spent prolonged periods together indoors, cases are expected to keep rising for at least the next few days, according to Professor Karl Friston, a virus modeller at University College London.
His calculations indicate that cases will peak in late December or early January, with this Saturday, 30 December, the most likely date.
“The next peak in prevalence is anticipated to be in the next few days, on or around December 30, ” Professor Friston told i.
“The rise in prevalence is what one would expect with a post-Christmas peak.”
It is common for illnesses to increase around the Christmas period as people socialise more and cold conditions help viruses to thrive, at the same time as weakening our resistance to them.
There are also concerns about waning immunity to Covid as large swathes of the population have not been vaccinated for at least a year, while the number of infections have been at lower levels in recent months.
As a result, scientists fear that a higher proportion of those cases could become severe this year than last year.
That is because vaccines are particularly effective at preventing serious illness in those getting infected – although they do also reduce the risk of infection as well.
The increased chance of serious illness also pushes up the risk of a person going on to develop long Covid because serious cases are more likely to lead to that condition.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, said: “We continue to be confronted by new Covid variants which are unpredictable and, together with the inevitable increase in mixing over the Christmas period, increases the risk of a spike of infections just at the time when the NHS will be experiencing its usual winter pressures.”
Professor Steve Griffin, of Leeds University, said the lower levels of boosting are “a cause for concern this winter and we are likely to again see coincident waves of Covid, RSV [common cold] and influenza that will bring huge NHS pressure.”
He added: “In the UK we are making things that much more difficult by restricting the availability of boosters to over-65s and a very limited group of more vulnerable, or otherwise eligible people.
“Without ongoing widespread vaccination combined with appropriate mitigations such as improved indoor air quality, we will continue to see waves of infection for the foreseeable future.”
Scientists say infections, which stood at 4.3 per cent of the population mid December, could exceed the July 2022 wave peak of 5.8 per cent during the New Year wave.
This means UK infections could hit their highest level since their all-time high in the spring of 2022 – though it is not clear how high cases will go in the current peak.
Sarah Carter is a health and wellness expert residing in the UK. With a background in healthcare, she offers evidence-based advice on fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being, promoting healthier living for readers.
