UK spring budget to take place on 6 March, Treasury announces – business live | Business

Richard Partington

Jeremy Hunt’s decision to announce 6 March as the date for a spring budget will fuel speculation over the timing of the next general election despite the Conservatives trailing in the opinion polls, my colleague Richard Partington reports.

He adds:

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is at 13 points, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Newsflash: the Spring Budget 2024 will be delivered on 6 March, the UK government has just announced.

The Treasury says:

The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has commissioned the Office for Budget Responsibility to prepare an economic and fiscal forecast to be presented to Parliament alongside his Spring Budget on 6 March 2024.

This should be the final budget before the next election, which must take place by January 2025.

And there will be pressure on Hunt to deliver some pre-election giveaways to shore up support for the Conservatives, who are lagging well behind in the polls.

The Daily Telegraph today reports that Downing Street is considering axing inheritance tax in three months’ time in a pre-election giveaway, in an attmpt to boost Rishi Sunak’s chances of victory.

They say the PM has ordered a “gear change” on tax.

While The Times today reports that “Worried Tories” will promise help for first-time buyers, which could include backing long fixed-term mortgages to cut deposits.

The i, meanwhile, report that Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are plotting a spending trap for Labour by dictating the amount of money available for public services before the next election.

World stocks have rallied to their highest levels since late 2022 today, Reuters flags.

Year-end optimism high on hopes that major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates early next year.

MSCI’s world stock index has touched a more than one-year high and is up 4.5% in December.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan has gained more than 1% to an over four-month high.

SEB chief economist Jens Magnusson says:

“We still have strong equity markets and that is likely to hold through to New Year,”

Former German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, one of the key figures in the eurozone debt crisis, has died aged 81.

Schäuble was one of the most significant figures of post-war German politics. He served as a member of the German parliament for over half a century.

During his career he helped negotiate German reunification in 1990, before later serving as finance chief under Angela Merkel, when Berlin consistantly insisted on austerity-led recovery plans.

Schäuble died at home on Tuesday evening, his family told German news agency dpa on Wednesday.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led the tributes this morning, posting that:

“Germany has lost a sharp thinker, passionate politician and pugnacious democrat.”

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said she was “deeply saddened” to hear of Schäuble’s passing.

Lagarde, who ran the International Monetary Fund through many of the turbulent days of the eurozone crisis, added:

He was one of the most influential European leaders of his generation.

I personally witnessed his commitment to Europe, his intellectual rigour and his statesmanship.

My thoughts are with his family.

France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, posted that Schäuble had been “a friend, a loyal and reliable partner, a tireless architect of Franco-German friendship”

During the eurozone debt crisis, Berlin took a hardline approach to easing Greece’s debt burden, with Schäuble accusing the Syriza government of “acting irresponsibly” in February 2015 as it pushed for debt relief and an easing of some of its bailout conditions.

And in 2016, Schäuble warned Athens it must either enforce unpopular structural reforms or exit the bloc.

Schäuble went on to become Bundestag speaker, after the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland party made parliamentary gains in elections in 2017.

Some metal prices are rising this morning too, after China’s factories reported a rise in profits.

China’s November industrial profits rose by 29.5% year-on-year in November, the National Bureau of Statistics reported this morning, up from October’s 2.7% expansion.

This has helped to nudge the benchmark copper contract in London up by 0.6% to $8,625 per metric ton just after 7am this morning, as trading resumed after the Christmas break.

Zinc is up 0.9% in London, Reuters reports, while lead has climbed 0.6%, nickel has added 1.5% and tin is up 2.8%.

Metal prices have also been pushed up by the weaker dollar, which is trading near a five-month low on expectations of US interest rate cuts in 2024.

Australia’s stock market saw a Santa Rally today too.

The S&P/ASX 200 index has gained 0.8%, and hit its highest level since late April 2022 as trading resumed for the week.

Investing.com says:

The index is on track for yearly gains of over 7%.

Optimism surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold steady on interest rates at its last meeting of the year, influenced in part by the more dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, has boosted Australian stocks.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Global stock markets are embarking on an end-of-year ‘Santa rally’, as City traders and investors return to their desks after the Christmas break for the final push into 2024.

Optimism that central banks will start to lower interest rates in 2024, and cut several times next year, continues to push shares higher.

Yesterday the US stock market rallied again, with shares higher in light trading – lifting the S&P 500 index to its highest intraday level in almost two years.

That leaves the S&P 500 less than 1% below its closing all-time high of 4,796.56 set in January 2022.

The rally indicates investors are more confident that US policymakers can achieve a ‘soft landing’ – pushing down inflation without causing a recession. Last Friday, the US PCE index showed inflation decelerated last month.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, says:

The prevailing sentiment suggests a “risk-on” environment in U.S. markets, with renewed optimism focused on anticipating swifter and earlier rate cuts.

The US stock market has been pushing higher since early November, on rising hopes that America’s economy can avoid a recession.

Jan Szilagyi, CEO and co-founder of Toggle AI, told CNBC:

“I don’t love the term, but if you were to describe what is happening it’s definitely Goldilocks for the market.

Inflation’s coming down, the economy is still chugging along, and the hiking cycle’s over. On all of these macro trends, the rally has been justified.”

Asia-Pacific have picked up the baton, with China’s CSI 300 index up 0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei gaining over 1%

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has jumped 1.8%, as Chinese regulators appeared to soften a new crackdown on online gaming by approving a batch of new games.

Recession worries are also looming over the City of London, though, after UK GDP data was revised down last Friday.

That showed the UK economy shrank slightly in the July-September quarter, adding to pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates in 2024.

European stock markets are set to open higher, with FTSE futures up 0.5%, Germany’s DAX up 0.45% in premarket trading, and the Eurostoxx 50 index of Europe’s largest companies up 0.55%.

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