Ultimate Rugby World Cup final awaits : PlanetRugby

History will be made on Saturday when one of New Zealand or South Africa become the first four-time winners of the Rugby World Cup.

There was slight disappointment when hosts France were ousted from their own tournament in the last-eight – leaving the atmosphere comparatively flat for the semi-finals – but this game has given a fantastic World Cup a fitting finale.

It has not been the smoothest build-up, especially for the Springboks, who saw one of their players, Bongi Mbonambi, accused of using a racist slur towards England’s Tom Curry, but we can now properly focus on the rugby.

They are two wonderful teams, who have shown skill, physicality, bravery and resilience to reach the showpiece event. It could well be the greatest final this tournament has even seen, given the standards they have set both past and present.

The All Blacks and the Springboks are the most successful countries in rugby’s history, lifting the Webb Ellis Cup on three occasions each, but one of those nations will be out on its own on Saturday night.

A repeat of the famous 1995 final, which was won by South Africa thanks to Joel Stransky’s drop-goal after extra-time, it would not surprise us if this match is similarly tight.

These games create legends of the sport and the two sides in Paris will be looking to follow in the footsteps of some of those greats. Many from this weekend’s All Blacks and Springboks teams have already etched their names into the history books, but more records could be broken in Paris.

Look at Sam Whitelock, who may become the first player to win it three times, or South Africa in general, who could be the second team to defend their title after – you guessed it – New Zealand.

The Boks have also never conceded a try in a World Cup final, while their three triumphs at the global tournament (1995, 2007 and 2019) have come 12 years apart. A win at the Stade de France will break that streak and add to the legacy of their inspirational skipper Siya Kolisi and the brains trust, Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber.

As for their opponents, it would be a story of redemption for the much-derided Sam Cane and his head coach, Ian Foster, who will be replaced by Scott Roberson after the World Cup, irrespective of the end result.

It is all set for an enthralling spectacle, one which will be enjoyed immensely by the neutrals but, for the fans and those not on the pitch, it will be at least 80 minutes of nerve-wracking action. A titanic tussle awaits.

Where the game will be won

The physical battle in the opening 20 minutes will be huge. In the two games that have been played between these sides so far this year, the start has set the tone for the match. The All Blacks went at over a point a minute in the Rugby Championship clash in Auckland, going 17-0 ahead early on, while at Twickenham, the Springboks were utterly relentless, denying their opponents possession and forcing them to concede a string of penalties.

There are caveats in that the losing side had issues in their preparation which contributed to the blowouts, but it does show what can happen if one of the teams is slightly off in the first quarter. It will no doubt be tight and tense in the early exchanges, especially if the weather is bad, and it will be fascinating to see which side can be the more accurate.

Logic dictates that wet conditions would favour the forward-orientated Springboks, but the All Blacks’ high skill levels means they are more comfortable with ball in hand. They’ve also had the best kicking game in this tournament and have chasers that can repeat England’s effort from last week and put South Africa under pressure aerially.

The big question is how they fare at the set-piece. With their first choice players available, it is a very good New Zealand front five and one that we can think can handle the starting Bok pack. However, as the Red Rose found out in the semi-final, getting the better of the forward replacements, especially in the front-row, is another issue altogether. If the All Blacks can do that then the trophy will be in reach.

Last time they met

What they said

All Blacks coach Jason Ryan and flanker Dalton Papali’i have discussed how they will be able to neutralise South Africa’s bench – nicknamed the ‘Bomb Squad’ – on Saturday.

“It would be good to take some gas out of that bomb, wouldn’t it? They have got their DNA as a forward pack,” Ryan said.

“We’ve got trust in our plan this week and we believe we will be able to be there right until the end.”

Papali’i believes that New Zealand could well have their own answer to the ‘Bomb Squad’ and is looking for their bench to make an impact in Paris.

“I’ll tell you a quick story. I’ve got a little group happening in the team room at our hotel and we’re watching Band of Brothers and the 101st Airborne and their Easy Company,” he said.

“So, I made a little joke saying ‘you know they’ve got the ‘Bomb Squad’, so we could have the ‘Easy Company’. We want to go and finish the job and be in the trenches’.

“Talking about the Bomb Squad, man they’ve proven themselves. They can come on and change a game like that. So, we sort of need to identify whoever is on the bench and that, need to really be screwed on up top and give it hell.”

Meanwhile, Springboks head coach Nienaber revealed why they went for a 7-1 split on the bench, instead of the 5-3 they used in the previous two knockout matches.

“The team is not 15, it is 23. We always say that. When you do squad selection there are a lot of things that influence that, from medical to past performances and a lot of analysis into New Zealand and where we think we can get the edge on them,” he said.

“Then the discussions start between the coaches and it goes from a 5-3 to a 6-2 to a 7-1, then it goes back again. It is not a 10-minute discussion, it is hours and hours.

“I’m not going to say what the strengths and weaknesses of the All Blacks are, that would be stupid. But a lot of analysis went into it and at the end we went with a squad of 23.

“It could have been 6-2, 5-3, it doesn’t matter. You select a team that you think can get a result. The 23 we selected for a reason, and the reason is we think they can deliver and win us a back-to-back World Cup.”

Players to watch

If the All Blacks are to avoid a repeat of what happened at Twickenham then it requires their forward eight to step up. Foster will hope that tighthead prop Tyrel Lomax lasts longer than 10 minutes this time around as he and Ethan de Groot will be vital to neutralising the threat the Springboks bring in the scrum. With those two in the front-row, they genuinely have a top-class front five, but this will no doubt be the biggest challenge of their careers so far.

If Lomax and De Groot struggle then you fear for Tamaiti Williams and Nepo Laulala. Williams in particular is incredibly talented, while Laulala has plenty of Test match experience, but the latter will be coming up against Ox Nche, who is playing the best rugby of his career. England showed that you may be able to negate the Boks in the scrum in the first half but, if you don’t have that depth, the defending champios can still punish you.

Equally, the lineout will be challenged by Eben Etzebeth, which means there is an onus on hooker Codie Taylor and his two locks to get that operation running smoothly. However, it is the presence of Shannon Frizell which knits that back five together. Frizell crucially adds that physicality at close quarters but he is also an extra jumping option at the set-piece, and that provides the balance to the pack.

Behind the scrum, there are stars aplenty and no doubt the two Barretts, Jordie and Beauden, will be prominent this weekend. They are superb with ball in hand, but it could well be their respective boots which gives their team the edge, especially with the dodgy weather that has been forecast. New Zealand have the most variety in their kicking game in the world and the skill of those two players to find their team-mates with cross-field efforts or little dinks over the top often keeps their opponents’ defence guessing.

Two rivals will meet again.

The world awaits…#NZLvRSA | #RWC2023 | #RWCFinal pic.twitter.com/SOPDt9w95H

— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 23, 2023

It is why the two South African wings, Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, need to be much better this weekend. Having those two exciting speedsters in tandem has certainly signalled a slightly different approach from the Boks, giving them more attacking flair in the wide channels, but it has left them slightly exposed aerially. That was well and truly exploited by England in the semi-final, and it could be argued that the All Blacks have even more chasing threats, with the likes of Will Jordan, Mark Telea and Jordie Barrett in their side.

Ultimately, to avoid giving New Zealand easy exits, South Africa will seek to win penalties from their set-piece and provide the platform for Handre Pollard to put them in the right areas. It is tough on Manie Libbok, who misses out despite being first choice fly-half up until this point, but it is probably the right call. Pollard is a much more consistent kicker, both off the tee and out of hand, and displayed those qualities against England. His kick for touch, which set up the position for RG Snyman’s try, and 50-metre penalty that won them the game showed his big game temperament.

The half-backs will certainly hope for a better platform than was served up last weekend, with Eben Etzebeth one of those to surprisingly fall below his usual standards. He was bettered in most facets by the English and was hooked by the coaches. Etzebeth remains the best at setting up a driving maul, however, despite the job Steve Borthwick’s men did on him, and his combination with Bongi Mbonambi will need to be established early on. Mbonambi has had a difficult week after being accused of racially abusing Curry – which World Rugby subsequently dismissed – so it will be interesting to see his – and South Africa’s – reaction following that disruption.

Main head-to-head

The impact of the respective benches will be significant, but two players who are unlikely to be replaced are scrum-halves Aaron Smith and Faf de Klerk. The latter is particularly important to his side, considering they have no back-up number nine in the 23. Kolbe is reportedly the makeshift half-back but the Springboks will not want to lose De Klerk to injury, while they will also be scuppered if he plays badly.

Knowing that you are the number one has its advantages – providing the Boks playmaker with clarity over his role – but it can also add to the pressure. That is something New Zealand and Smith will look to play on this weekend. The All Blacks legend will be featuring in his final match for the national team on Saturday, but he is playing as well as ever. Smith has been simply outstanding through this World Cup, making it so much easier for those both inside and outside him through his passing and kicking accuracy.

Prediction

This game is a toss of a coin. New Zealand have slightly more factors in their favour, given the extra day’s rest, the ease of their semi-final in comparison to South Africa’s struggle against England and the Mbonambi off-field distraction which has dominated the Springboks’ build-up, but no doubt Nienaber’s men will be ready this weekend. However, we think Foster’s charges will just about edge it due to the pressure they can put on via their kicking game. All Blacks by four points.

Previous results

2023: South Africa won 35-7 in London
2023: New Zealand won 35-20 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 35-23 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 26-10 in Mbombela
2021: South Africa won 31-29 on the Gold Coast
2021: New Zealand won 19-17 in Townsville
2019: New Zealand won 23-13 in Yokohama
2019: New Zealand and South Africa drew 16-16 in Wellington
2018: New Zealand won 32-30 in Pretoria
2018: South Africa won 36-34 in Wellington

The teams

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Sam Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jasper Wiese, 23 Willie le Roux

Date: Saturday, October 28
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (England), Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)

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